Grain Markets Send Mixed Signals
Tim Healy 10/5/2026
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Corn Dec '26 (ZCZ26)
December 2026 Corn Technicals
Current Price: 500'6
7DMA: 510'5
14DMA: 521'5
21DMA: 525'4
Bearish moving-average structure
The averages are aligned:
7-day MA below 14-day MA below 21-day MA
That is a clearly bearish short-term structure. It indicates that recent prices are weakening faster than the broader three-week trend.
The current price is:
9’7 below the 7-day average
20’7 below the 14-day average
24’5 below the 21-day average
Price being below all three averages confirms that sellers currently control the short-term trend.
Momentum in December corn declined from 536’6 on September 22 to approximately 500’6 on October 5. It is also down about 21’2, or 4.1%, over the latest five trading sessions.
The sharp September 30th decline from 522’0 to 500’6, accompanied by the highest volume in the recent data, represents a meaningful downside momentum break rather than an ordinary low-volume pullback.
Key technical levels
Immediate support: 495’0
Psychological support: 500’0
First resistance: 510’5, the 7-day MA
Secondary resistance: 521’5 to 525’4, the 14-day and 21-day MA zone
Stronger resistance: 527’0 to 530’0, the prior consolidation area.
Current bearish technicals.
The most likely near-term pattern is continued pressure or sideways consolidation below the falling moving averages. A recovery above 510’5 would be the first sign that downside momentum is easing, but the structure would remain bearish until price can reclaim the 521’5 to 525’4 area. A sustained break below 495’0 would reinforce the downtrend and expose lower support.
Soybean Nov '26 (ZSX26)
November 2026 Soybean Technicals
Current Price: 1293'6
7DMA: 1293'1
14DMA: 1307'421DMA: 1308'5
Bullish short-term, Neutral-to-Bearish intermediate trend
Current price (1293'6) is slightly above the 7-day MA (1293'1).
Current price remains below the 14-day MA (1307'4) and below the 21-day MA (1308'5).
This suggests a recent rebound, but soybeans have not yet fully reversed the late-September selloff.
7-day MA: 1293'1
14-day MA: 1307'4
21-day MA: 1308'5
The 7-day average is still below both longer-term averages, which indicates the larger trend remains corrective. However, the gap between the 14-day and 21-day averages has become very small, suggesting downside momentum is slowing. The market sold off sharply from 1328'0 on September 21 to 1278'2 on October 2 but has since rebounded to approximately 1293'6.
Today's rally pushed futures back above the 7-day average, which is the first constructive technical signal since the late-September break.
Key Levels
Immediate Support: 1273-1278
Secondary Support 1288'2
First Resistance 1307'4
Second Resistance 1308'5
Major Resistance: 1318-1328
Neutral technicals with improving momentum.
Bullish: Close above 1308'5 would put price back above both the 14- and 21-day moving averages and indicate a trend reversal.
Neutral: Trade between 1278 and 1308 keeps the market range bound.
Bearish: A break back below 1278 would suggest the recent bounce has failed and could open the door to a retest of lower.
Wheat Dec ’26 (ZWZ26)
Short-Term Trending neutral to bullish short-term.
Current price (694'6) is above the 7-day MA (688'0).
Current price remains below the 14-day MA (703'0).
Current price remains below the 21-day MA (718'1).
This indicates that wheat has staged a recovery from the late-September lows but has not yet reversed the broader downtrend.
7-day MA: 688'0
14-day MA: 703'0
21-day MA: 718'1
The averages remain aligned in a bearish order:
7-day < 14-day < 21-day
This confirms the larger trend is still down, although today's rally pushed prices above the shortest-term average.
Wheat fell from 726'6 on September 21 to 675'6 on September 30, then rebounded to 694'6 on October 5. The strong move higher on October 5 is the first indication that downside momentum may be slowing. However, bulls still need a close above the 14-day average to confirm a meaningful trend change.
Immediate Support: 680-683
Secondary Support 675'6
First Resistance 703'0
Second Resistance 718'1
Major Resistance: 726-731
Technical Bias: Neutral-Bearish, Improving
Bullish scenario I believe if we hold above 688'0 and break through 703'0.
A move above 718'1 could signal a stronger trend reversal.
Neutral trade between 683'0 and 703'0 as the market consolidates.
Possible bearish if we see failure below 688'0 followed by a break under 675'6 and would put the broader downtrend back in control.
Trade Recommendations Dec ’26 Corn
Sell rallies in corn
Entry Zone: 507-513
Stop: 522
Target 1: 490
Target 2: 475
The 7-day average near 510 is acting as first resistance. Unless corn can reclaim and hold above the 14-day average around 523, the path of least resistance remains lower. Risk/reward favors selling strength rather than chasing weakness.
Bullish signal if we close over 523’0.
Neutral trend to Slightly Bearish
Price is essentially sitting on the 7-day average.
14-day and 21-day averages remain overhead.
Beans have been consolidating rather than trending aggressively.
Trade Recommendation Nov’26 Beans
Buy breakout strength
Entry: Above 1300-1302
Stop: 1283
Target 1: 1320
Target 2: 1340
Soybeans are the strongest chart of the three markets. They are much closer to the moving averages than either corn or wheat. A breakout through the recent consolidation could force short covering and create momentum toward the September highs.
Bearish trigger: Close below 1275.
Trade Recommendation Dec’26 Wheat
Longer term bearish, Improving Short-Term
Price has recovered above the 7-day average.
Still below the 14-day and 21-day averages.
Today's rally may be the first sign of a countertrend recovery.
Buy a pullback
Entry Zone: 688-692
Stop: 679
Target 1: 706
Target 2: 720
Unlike corn, wheat has already reclaimed the 7-day moving average. If momentum continues, a test of the 14-day average around 706 becomes likely. Risk/reward currently favors a tactical long trade rather than initiating new shorts after the recent decline.
Bearish trigger: Close back below 685.
Tim Healy
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