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    MDA Space (TSX:MDA) Wins Major EchoStar Contract, Is The Valuation Upside Still There?

    Simply Wall St·10/02/2026 23:23:30
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    MDA Space (TSX:MDA) is drawing fresh attention after securing sizable contracts for large low Earth orbit constellations, including a direct-to-device satellite deal with EchoStar that could reshape investor expectations around cash generation and valuation.

    The EchoStar win lands after a mixed stretch for MDA Space investors, with the share price climbing 9.64% over the past month but falling 28.31% over the past 90 days. At the same time, the year-to-date share price return of 53.96% and three-year total shareholder return of about 2.6x suggest long term momentum remains intact despite recent volatility.

    Scan beyond MDA Space and benchmark it against 90 AI infrastructure stocks to harness the surge in demand for satellite connectivity and data-heavy communications.

    MDA Space has already rewarded early believers, yet the EchoStar constellation win and fresh LEO work leave a different puzzle. Is most of the rerating already in the rearview mirror, or is valuation still lagging the story?

    Most Popular Narrative: 37% Undervalued

    On the narrative view, MDA Space screens as materially underpriced, with a fair value of CA$67.27 against a last close of CA$42.54. However, that gap rests on some punchy assumptions about contracts and capital spending.

    The ramp-up of large LEO constellation contracts, including the landmark $1.8 billion EchoStar direct-to-device satellite order with options to expand, and multiple pipeline opportunities in broadband, defense, and IoT, is expected to drive robust multi-year revenue growth as global demand for satellite connectivity accelerates.

    See why 78 investors see MDA Space as 37% undervalued.

    Result: Fair Value of CA$67.27 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, the bullish MDA Space narrative leans heavily on converting a large contract pipeline and fully utilizing new satellite manufacturing capacity, both of which could slip on timing or volume.

    Find out about the key risks to this MDA Space narrative.

    Another Lens On MDA Space’s Valuation

    The earlier fair value work leans heavily on discounted future cash flows and analyst projections. A different picture emerges once price is compared to earnings. MDA Space trades on a P/E of 65.1x, while the estimated fair ratio is 56.9x and peers sit closer to 28.8x. That kind of gap points to richer expectations built into the share price. The key question is whether the underlying contracts and profit trajectory justify paying such a premium multiple.

    For investors who prefer to anchor decisions on simple comparables rather than forecasts alone, our valuation breakdown sets out how this P/E premium stacks up against sector averages, the fair ratio our model suggests the market could move toward over time, and where that leaves upside or downside risk in practical terms for MDA Space See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

    TSX:MDA P/E Ratio as at Oct 2026
    TSX:MDA P/E Ratio as at Oct 2026

    Next Steps

    Conflicted by the mix of optimism and caution around MDA Space, but do not want to rely on a single storyline? Move quickly, review the data, and weigh both sides of the thesis by checking the 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond MDA Space?

    You do not need to stop with MDA Space. Use the Simply Wall Street Screener to uncover other opportunities that fit your style before the crowd catches on.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.