Energies Active Following Reports of G7 – European Reserve Release and Jobs Number, Temporary Reprieve or Longer Term Relief with Hormuz Transit Picking Up?
As of midday 2 October 2026, the energy complex is weaker across the Crude Oil WTI, RBOB Gasoline and Heating Oil/NY Harbor Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel markets, with Crude Oil WTI down over 1% (closer to 1.73%) RBOB Gasoline down about 2.6% and Heating Oil NY Harbor Ultra Low Sulfur Diesel down about 3.47%.
This follows multiple reports of the heavily, mostly European, G7 agreeing to release reserves, and a US employment number which came in well below the bottom end of consensus estimates (29,000 vs. 40,000) , also combined with downward revisions to previous months August and July.
While the jobs report and reports of the reserve release along with reports of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to pre-conflict levels are all bearish for price and bullish for supply in the short term, one has to wonder about the long term implications of needing to release reserves and the choking pressure in supplies it potentially implies over the longer term.
For instance, for a trader with a short timeframe, a bearish position may have been warranted today given the reserve release and jobs number, while for a longer term position trader or hedger, it may be hard to argue with the bullish implications for refined products, given reserve releases and refining capacity.
Further, one can see the daily chart below the November 2026 Heating Oil (HOX26) Diesel market tested trendline support before rising from the day’s low and there seems to be a triangle pattern developing for a breakout along with, for the time being, an island reversal from the Mid-September highs. This is tradeable with a number of future and option strategies and timeframes depending on risk capital.
Many have also noted the tradeoff refiners and producers, and therefore consumers and end users, will have to make in the event a switch is made from Gasoline to Diesel, which also makes the G7 reserve release gambit of interest.
To discuss these developments in the energy markets and others, please find my contact information below as well as the links to Join My Email List and Account Forms to position your account accordingly.
Michael B. O’Donnell
Senior Market Strategist
Direct: 312-957-8248
Toll Free: 888-391-7894
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