Is It Really Safe to Invest Right Now if a Stock Market Crash Is Coming? Here's the Honest Answer.

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) has ridden the current artificial intelligence (AI) boom to three consecutive years of double-digit percentage gains, and at its current rate, it wouldn't be surprising if it made it four. So far through Sept. 29, it's up 12%, but that doesn't mean investors are carefree.

According to CNN's Fear & Greed Index, fear is currently driving the market. Many factors contribute to that sentiment, but much of it stems from investors wondering whether and when a stock market crash will happen. If your main question is if it's safe to invest right now, then the simple answer is yes. However, the more honest answer is that you shouldn't be trying to anticipate a crash.

Time in the market matters most

From the outside, telling someone to invest when they anticipate a market crash seems counterproductive. However, trying to time the market is rarely a good idea. Nobody can predict how the stock market will perform, and holding off on investing while anticipating a crash could cause you to miss out on valuable gains.

History shows that missing some of the market's best-performing days can drastically reduce your returns over time. For perspective, here's the value of a $100,000 investment in the S&P 500 from 1995 to 2025 based on the number of its best-performing days missed:

Best Days Missed	Annualized Total Returns	Value of $100,000 Investment
0	10.3%	$1,921,677
10	7.4%	$854,910
20	5.4%	$495,515
30	3.8%	$311,236
40	2.4%	$205,217
50	1.1%	$139,210
60	(0.2%)	$96,759

Data source: Invesco.

In this example, 10 days over a 30-year span seems small (around 0.13% of trading days), but it could make a difference of over $1 million if you instead missed none of the market's best days. Sixty days is the difference between making something and losing money.

That's only one half of the equation, too. Investors often miss the market's best days while trying to avoid its worst. Of the S&P 500's 15 best days in the past 30 years, one came during the dot-com crash, seven during the global financial crisis, six during the COVID-19 crash, and one during last year's tariff shock.

Notable investor Peter Lynch once said: "Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves."

Timing the market means you have to be right twice: Once when you're trying to sell near the peak, and again when you're trying to buy back at the bottom. Even if you're "right," it's more luck than anything, and you don't want the false sense that it's sustainable over time.

When, not if, a crash happens

We can't predict when a market crash will happen, but history shows it's a natural part of the stock market cycle, so it's a matter of when, not if. Luckily, bull markets have lasted longer than bear markets, so investors have come out on top. Since 1942, there have been 15 bear markets, averaging 11.1 months. There have been 16 bear markets (including the one we're currently in), with an average duration of 4.4 years.

Even when a bear market eventually happens, you want to avoid panic selling. The market has bounced back from every crash it has experienced, and nothing suggests it won't continue to do so.

Notably, as of Sept. 29, the S&P 500 is up 888% since its bottom during the dot-com bubble; up 1,030% since its bottom during the financial crisis; up 243% since its bottom during the COVID-19 pandemic; and up 114% since the bottom of the 2022 bear market.

Staying the course is almost always the best choice for long-term investors. It's easier said than done, but most investors won't regret doing so.

Stefon Walters has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.