Lindt & Sprüngli FY26 Guidance Revision Offers 'Clearing Event' Potential, UBS Says

06:28 AM EDT, 10/01/2026 (MT Newswires) -- UBS Global Research views Lindt & Sprüngli's (LISN.SW, LISP.SW) recent full-year 2026 outlook update as a potential "clearing event," even as the research firm expects investor sentiment recovery to take time after this second guidance cut for the year. Analysts said Wednesday the revision was "not totally unexpected", with the Swiss chocolate maker cutting its 2026 organic sales growth target to between 0% and 2% from the previous goal of 4% to 6%, compared with UBS' forecast of 0.5% and consensus estimate of 3.9%. "We roughly split the guidance cut in three equal elements: the heatwave, lower seasonal retailer order volumes on price elasticity risks and Lindt's reduced ASP (after a c50% ASP hike over the last years) to protect market shares. Lindt was saying to expect H2 26E volumes to improve to negative low single digit y/y (H1 -7.5% y/y) with ASP mildly up y/y on roll overs. Lindt targets volumes to turn to positive growth in 2027E (UBSe +5-6% y/y) and EBIT margins to potentially expand 20-40bp+ y/y (UBSe +60bp). We estimate 2027E pricing will be negative by c5% y/y passing on some of the lower cocoa costs. This should overall still result in some 2027E mid single digit EBIT growth y/y," UBS wrote. Against this backdrop, the research firm lowered its 2027 and 2028 estimates by "some" 4% and ticked down its medium-term annual sales growth expectations by 50 basis points to 5%, citing anticipated headwinds in western Europe due to consumer risks and market saturation. UBS also cut the stock's price target to 120,000 francs from 125,000 francs, while maintaining its buy rating.