Counterpoint: Global smartphone shipments under $200 are expected to drop by 230 million units in 2030 compared to 2025
The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to Counterpoint Research's latest smartphone shipment forecast by price segment, global smartphone shipments under $200 are expected to drop by more than 230 million units between 2025 and 2030. Although overall smartphone market shipments are expected to return to 2025 levels by the end of 2030, smartphone shipments in this price segment are expected to decrease by about 40% compared to 2025.
This trend of differentiation reflects the structural impact of the market downturn from 2026 to 2027. Rising storage and chipset costs, increased minimum configuration requirements, and OEMs' reluctance to invest in non-strategic market layouts will significantly reduce the supply space for entry-level smartphones. Some consumers will move to a higher price segment, while others may extend the life cycle of their existing devices. Used phones will also absorb part of the demand. At the same time, in markets where the cost of purchasing a smartphone has become a major obstacle to the spread of mobile internet, the process of buying a smartphone for the first time may slow down further.
Yang Wang, chief analyst at Counterpoint Research, said, “The smartphone market will recover in terms of shipment volume, but it will be difficult for the affordable market to return to its previous position. Market demand is shifting more towards mainstream products and high-end products with higher configurations, but higher price segments cannot fully handle lost shipments. As a result, the overall size of the future smartphone market may be close to what it used to be, but the market value and competitive landscape will change markedly. Furthermore, the reduced supply of newer, cheaper smartphones may also bring wider connectivity risks, making it more difficult for first-time smartphone users in low-income markets to access the mobile internet.”
The global smartphone market is recovering, but sales of models under $200 have not rebounded
Source: Counterpoint Research smartphone shipment forecast by price segment, September 2026
The impact of the contraction in the affordable market continues
Global smartphone shipments are expected to return to around 1.2 billion units in 2030, which is only slightly below the level of 2025. However, smartphone shipments under $200 are still expected to be around 40% lower than in 2025, while shipments in the $200 and above price segment are expected to increase by about 26%. The entry-level market will account for a large part of the overall contraction, as parts costs account for a relatively high share of their bill of materials (BOM), and there is relatively little room for manufacturers to absorb rising costs.
By 2030, growth trends across price segments will clearly diverge. High-end smartphone shipments are expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 7%, while shipments in the midrange, high-end and mid-tier markets are expected to remain generally stable. The steady performance of the mid-tier market is particularly noteworthy. If the decline in low-cost smartphones is simply due to consumers directly upgrading to a higher price segment, then the neighboring price segment should generally experience a more significant increase. However, predictions suggest that this is a mixed trend, including upward consumer migration, delayed switching, and loss of demand for some new machines. As a result, the higher price segment will not be able to fully handle disappearing shipments from the market below $200.
The impact isn't limited to smartphone shipments. In low- and middle-income countries, affordability of mobile phones is still one of the main barriers to the spread of mobile internet, and the impact on low-income consumers is particularly obvious. As a result, the contraction in the sub-$200 market could slow the transition from feature phones and shared devices to personal smartphones, and will also exacerbate the challenges for operators, governments, and the broader mobile ecosystem to expand effective connectivity, content, and value-added services.
Addressing this risk requires broader affordable solutions, including equipment financing, trade-in and recycling equipment projects, targeted subsidies, tax adjustments, and continued industry efforts to maintain a commercially sustainable supply of entry-level equipment.
Compound annual growth rate of smartphone shipments by price segment
2021 to 2030
Source: Counterpoint Research smartphone shipment forecast by price segment, September 2026
The mid-tier market has become the industry's new competitive focus
Although mid-market shipments are expected to remain stable overall, the strategic importance of the mid-tier market will further increase as OEMs focus more new product launches, marketing investment, and channel resources on higher-configured mass-market products. Products in this price segment will increasingly combine larger memory and storage, 5G connectivity, stronger imaging capabilities, longer software support cycles, and some end-side AI features, while remaining within a price range acceptable to consumers.
This will make the mid-tier market more important in terms of sales volume and profitability. Future product differentiation will increasingly be reflected in design, imaging, battery life, and durability, rather than just parameter configuration. As high-end technology gradually descends to lower price segments, OEMs will have more room to provide visible upgrades without consumers directly entering the flagship product price range. As more brands concentrate their new product launches, marketing investment, and channel resources in the same mainstream price segment, market competition is likely to further intensify. In a situation where the overall scale of demand is generally stable, gaining market share will be more difficult and may put pressure on profit margins.
High-end markets drive revenue growth
It is expected that by the end of this decade, high-end smartphones will account for a higher share of global shipments and a larger share of overall market value, providing the industry with core revenue growth and continuous product innovation opportunities. High-income user groups, financial installments, trade-in, and ecosystem user stickiness will continue to support market demand; at the same time, folding screens, more advanced imaging capabilities, higher storage configurations, innovative design, and more feature-rich end-side AI will also provide new space for increasing average selling price (ASP).
This trend is expected to benefit more vendors with established brands, improved ecosystems, and continuous channel investment. Apple is expected to continue to be a core contributor to the value of the high-end smartphone market. With its product portfolio, scale, and ability to maintain low-margin products to expand market coverage, Samsung is expected to gain room for growth in both mainstream and high-end market segments. Thanks to flagship models, folding screens, and their recovery in the Chinese market, Huawei is expected to become an important Chinese OEM driving the expansion of the high-end market. Other major Chinese OEMs also have opportunities to optimize their product structures, although their ability to increase sales of high-end models will vary by region and channel.
Market recovery will drive up market value
As parts supply improves, retail prices stabilize, and demand for purchases delayed from 2026 to 2027 is gradually released, smartphone market shipments are expected to see a more pronounced recovery from 2028. However, the market pattern formed after experiencing this market downturn is expected to undergo structural changes: the share of mid-range models in mainstream market demand will increase, while the share of high-end products in industry value will expand.
Folding screens and end-side AI are expected to further enhance product differentiation and provide new revenue growth space for OEMs, but neither has shown any signs of independently creating a volume supercycle. As 6G-capable devices gradually become more widely commercialized by the end of this decade, related products are expected to bring demand for incremental upgrades and accelerate the spread of advanced technology to high-end and mid-tier products. However, for advances in networks, devices, and AI to reach more people around the world, ensuring that consumers can own smartphones at an affordable cost is also critical.