Evercore ISI said that as the Fed's interest rate hike cycle progresses and long-term US bond yields remain high, the difference between US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields has narrowed markedly, and the risk that the yield curve will be inverted again is rising. The agency pointed out that historically, an inversion usually means an increase in the risk of economic recession, but the time difference from inversion to recession is large. The average lead is about 15 months, and not every inversion is immediately accompanied by economic contraction. Evercore believes that at present, corporate surveys are still in the expansion range, the number of initial jobless claims remains low, and credit spreads are generally under control. It is not enough to determine that the economy is rapidly deteriorating, so it continues to be optimistic about AI-related sectors such as information technology, communication services, and optional consumption. However, the price of oil is close to 95 US dollars per barrel, and the 10-year US Treasury yield rising above 5% is increasing pressure on corporate profits, financing costs, and stock valuations. As a result, Evercore is still optimistic about the main AI line, while moderately increasing defense configurations.

Evercore ISI said that as the Fed's interest rate hike cycle progresses and long-term US bond yields remain high, the difference between US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields has narrowed markedly, and the risk that the yield curve will be inverted again is rising. The agency pointed out that historically, an inversion usually means an increase in the risk of economic recession, but the time difference from inversion to recession is large. The average lead is about 15 months, and not every inversion is immediately accompanied by economic contraction. Evercore believes that at present, corporate surveys are still in the expansion range, the number of initial jobless claims remains low, and credit spreads are generally under control. It is not enough to determine that the economy is rapidly deteriorating, so it continues to be optimistic about AI-related sectors such as information technology, communication services, and optional consumption. However, the price of oil is close to 95 US dollars per barrel, and the 10-year US Treasury yield rising above 5% is increasing pressure on corporate profits, financing costs, and stock valuations. As a result, Evercore is still optimistic about the main AI line, while moderately increasing defense configurations.