CITIC Securities: K-shaped differentiated liquor channel inventory is reasonable during the peak season

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that the fundamentals of the liquor industry are gradually stabilizing at the bottom, showing characteristics such as price stabilization under the support of commodity control, stiffness in retail sales despite declining cost investment, and steady elimination of inventory. Against the backdrop of the channel's pessimism about sales during the Mid-Autumn Festival season improving, it is possible to give moderately positive expectations for the upcoming New Year's Day Spring Festival peak season. Optimistic about the recovery market in the liquor sector, it is recommended to increase the distribution of leading wine companies at low prices. The beer sector is experiencing the dual challenges of declining sales and insufficient spending power. Facing large-scale pressure throughout the year, it is recommended that more attention be paid to targets that have the ability to expand the market.

CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:

Liquor: K-shaped differentiation during the Mid-Autumn Festival season, reasonable channel inventory

Wholesale prices have remained stable, and in the context of shrinking sales expenses, double sales have become more rigid. The industry is undergoing three fundamental changes: 1) the industry is developing well, channels are no longer pressuring goods, and wine companies have not issued high repayment tasks and targets; 2) inventory levels have begun to be removed, and dealer inventory levels are within half a year. The market is gradually changing from chaos to “2C” side construction led by manufacturers. The pressure on the reporting side is slower than the improvement of sales sales; 3) demand undermines even more under the reduced costs and flexible rewards from manufacturers. Sales are expected to decline slightly before the Mid-Autumn Festival National Day, but are more likely to be needed rather than stimulated by sales expenses.

Product prices are differentiated, and Maotai's performance is outstanding. The performance of high-end liquor and real estate liquor slightly exceeded expectations before the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. The overall sales performance of the Maotai and Wuliangye markets was strong, and dealers have yet to fully perceive the market demand; the downward trend in subhigh-end marketing is still fast, making it difficult for companies to find a gripper in operations, and the decline in revenue caused cost investment to be restrained; demand for local wine in the 100-300 yuan price range was more rigid.

Beer: Sales pressure was high in July-August, and the beer industry is entering the “quantity preservation and price stability” stage.

Affected by weather and consumer demand, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to August 2026, the cumulative beer production of enterprises above the scale of China was 26.128 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%. It is expected that the overall industry will focus on “proper volume maintenance” in the second half of the year. Looking at the channel structure, as of September 2026, the share of non-current drinks in leading companies had dropped below 40%. Overall, catering and nightclub channels were weak, and non-current drinking channels tested the basic skills of corporate sales teams.

Consumers: Focus on the development of AI, alcohol companies still need to return to create differentiation.

According to recent Accenture and Amedia consulting data, consumers are returning to a more rational state, and good products and strong price promotions have become the two primary ways for new brands to attract consumers. According to the 2025 Accenture questionnaire data, with the high degree of diversification and fragmentation of information, consumer decisions are more rational and rely on rapid analysis by AI, search engines, etc., and the demand for quality or differentiation is higher. 77% of consumers already have high-frequency AI usage habits, and 59% of consumers will ask about AI tools when making consumer decisions (only 35%). In Funda.ai's recent Muse by Meta survey, which has received a lot of attention in the market, shopping and ordering demand has already ranked among the top ten demands, placing high demands on how products express themselves.

Risk factors:

Macro consumer demand falls short of expectations; competition in the liquor industry intensifies; the price market performance of core products in the liquor industry falls short of expectations; the risk of high channel inventories; the risk of rising raw material costs for beer; food safety issues, etc.