Surgery Partners (SGRY) Updates 2026 Guidance On Idaho Falls Change As Valuation Stays In Focus

Surgery Partners (SGRY) updated its 2026 outlook on 17 September, guiding revenue to US$3.08b to US$3.18b after removing Idaho Falls Facilities from its expected contribution for the rest of the year.

The updated guidance landed after a choppy period for Surgery Partners. The stock is up 8.68% on a 7-day share price return and 5.19% on a 30-day share price return, yet it still shows a decline of 13.04% on a 90-day share price return and a much steeper 34.10% drop in 1-year total shareholder return. This pattern suggests that recent momentum has improved, but longer-term investors have faced sustained pressure as the market reassesses both the growth potential and the risk around the business.

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After a sharp one year slide and a recent bounce, Surgery Partners now trades well below both analyst targets and one internal fair value estimate range. Is that discount justified once the new guidance is reflected in the numbers?

Most Popular Narrative: 20% Undervalued

Surgery Partners last closed at $14.40, while the most followed narrative points to a fair value of about $17.95 using a 9.8% discount rate. That gap puts the focus on whether the core outpatient surgery thesis can carry the stock back toward that valuation.

The accelerated migration of high-acuity surgical procedures (particularly orthopedics and joint replacements) from hospitals to outpatient settings is strengthening, with Surgery Partners demonstrating outperformance through investments in robotics and facility capabilities, positioning the company to capitalize on expanding case volumes and higher-revenue procedures, directly supporting long-term revenue and EBITDA growth.

See why 5 investors see Surgery Partners as 20% undervalued.

Result: Fair Value of $17.95 (UNDERVALUED)

Still, rising interest costs, anesthesia related expenses, and payer mix pressures could keep margins tight and challenge the upbeat Surgery Partners valuation story.

Find out about the key risks to this Surgery Partners narrative.

Next Steps

Sentiment around Surgery Partners is mixed, which is exactly why a fresh look at the raw numbers matters. Act quickly on your curiosity and review the company’s 3 key rewards

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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