Is It Too Late to Buy IREN Stock After Its Monster Run?
Key Points
IREN stock has run up significantly over the past two years as it pivots from Bitcoin mining to providing AI cloud services.
Last year, it announced a five-year, $9.7 billion deal with Microsoft.
The company is spending significantly to expand its capacity.
Artificial intelligence has been fueling massive demand for both compute and power, and Bitcoin miners have been taking advantage. These companies own the infrastructure to handle demanding workloads, and as AI capacity remains scarce, miners have been pivoting their infrastructure toward this rapidly growing market.
IREN (NASDAQ: IREN) is one of them. The company started exploring an AI pivot in 2024. Investors have taken notice, and IREN shares are up 414% over the past two years. After such a monster run, is it too late to buy IREN? Let's dive into the company and its long-term outlook to find out.
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IREN's pivot from Bitcoin mining to an AI cloud service provider
Founded in 2018 as Iris Energy, IREN began its journey as a renewable-powered Bitcoin miner. Bitcoin mining and AI workloads require massive amounts of energy capacity. These workloads also require high-power-density data center infrastructure, including next-gen graphics processing unit (GPU) clusters and advanced cooling solutions.
IREN owns about 5 gigawatts (GW) of grid-connected power capacity across North America, Europe, and Asia, and more is in development. The company is already connected to the power grid, which is a major advantage. In addition, the company has over 150,000 GPUs installed or on order. Its infrastructure puts the company in a prime position to meet hyperscalers' compute and power needs right now.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
In July 2024, the company laid out how it could monetize its Bitcoin mining assets to meet AI compute needs. Since then, IREN has leveraged its assets and secured firm commitments from major technology companies.
IREN's major agreement with Microsoft
On Nov. 3, 2025, IREN announced a massive $9.7 billion cloud contract with Microsoft. As part of the deal, IREN will deliver large-scale GPU clusters in its Childress, Texas data centers. The five-year contract includes a 20% prepayment and is projected to contribute $1.94 billion in annualized revenue run rate (ARR) at an 85% EBITDA margin once fully commissioned.
In addition, IREN closed out its 2026 fiscal year (ending June 30, 2026) with $4 billion of ARR contracted for its current capacity. This includes new multi-year contracts with AI labs and developers like Cohere, Prometheus, Perplexity, Figure AI, Fal AI, and Higgsfield AI. It projects that its ARR will continue to grow as more compute comes online.
Is IREN a buy?
According to IREN, structural compute shortages have pushed three-year contract pricing up by roughly 125% and five-year rates up 70%. Under current pricing, management estimates that compute hardware investments will pay back in approximately two years.
Despite its surge in recent years, IREN stock is down 40% from its 52-week high as investors scrutinize the massive spending and debt load around the broader AI build-out. IREN is guiding to $25 billion to $30 billion in capital expenditures for fiscal year 2027, including GPUs, construction, and long-lead infrastructure.
Given the risks, IREN stock suits aggressive investors who believe that GPU prices will remain firm and that the AI cloud provider can succeed in turning its assets into cold, hard profits.
Courtney Carlsen has positions in Iren and Microsoft. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.