Corn, Beans & Wheat: Are the Charts Hinting at a Breakout?
Tim Healy 9/24/2026
Corn, Beans & Wheat: Are the Charts Hinting at a Breakout?
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Close (Latest) 527.50
MA7 532.64
MA14 532.82
MA21 534.95
Longer-term uptrend intact but slowing: From late June (~430–443) the contract rose strongly into early September, peaking near 546 (Sept 1).
Short-to-medium term consolidation / mild pullback: After the early-September high, price has been range-bound roughly 527–544, with a series of lower highs and a failed breakout attempt on Sept 21 (close 543).
MA7 and MA14 are nearly flat and converging around 532–533.
MA21 is still rising gently but is the highest of the three.
Price is below all three MAs → short-term bearish bias / corrective phase within the larger uptrend.
Volume: Elevated on the big up days in August and the Sept 11 and Sept 21 sessions; more recent volume has been moderate.
Support / Resistance observations:
Near-term support: ~525–527 (recent lows and today’s close area).
Resistance: ~533–536 (cluster of MAs + recent closes), then 543–546 (prior highs).
Trade ideas:
Mean-reversion long (countertrend within the larger uptrend)
Look for a bounce if price holds the 525–527 zone and shows a reversal candle.
Target: retest of MA7/MA14 (~533) then 536–540.
Stop: below recent low (e.g., under 524–525).
Rationale: Price has pulled back to the lower end of the recent range while the 21-day MA is still sloping up.
Another way to play this. Breakdown short (continuation of the corrective move)
If price closes decisively below 525 on expanding volume, consider shorting toward 515–520 (prior August support area).
Stop: above 532–533 (MA cluster).
Rationale: Price is already below all three MAs; a clean break of the recent low would confirm short-term downside momentum.
Range trade / fade extremes
Fade rallies into the 536–543 zone (especially if volume is weak) with a target back toward 528–530.
Or buy dips into 525–528 with a target of the MA cluster.
Rationale: The last two weeks have been a tight consolidation; range-bound strategies can work until a decisive break occurs.
MA crossover watch
A sustained move back above the MA7 + MA14 cluster (~533) with MA7 crossing above MA14 would be a short-term bullish signal for a retest of the September highs.
Conversely, if MA7 and MA14 both roll over and price stays below MA21, the corrective phase could deepen.
Key levels to watch next: 525 (support), 533 (MA cluster), 536–540, and 546 (prior high).
Soybean Nov ’26 (ZSX26)
Close (Latest) 1317.50
MA7 1318.96
MA14 1315.71
MA21 1308.30
Trend analysis
Strong medium-term uptrend: Price has risen substantially from the late-June lows (~1139–1157) to a peak of 1332.25 on Sept 10. Overall gain from the start of the data is roughly +14%.
Recent consolidation after a sharp spike-and-retrace: A strong rally into early September was interrupted by a large down day on Sept 11 (–35.75 pts to 1296.50). Since then price has recovered and is chopping in a roughly 1300–1330 range.
MA structure (bullish alignment):
MA7 ≈ MA14 and both rising gently.
MA21 is rising more steeply and remains the lowest of the three (classic bullish stacking: shorter MAs above longer MAs).
Price is hovering right around the MA7 after briefly trading above it.
Support / Resistance observations:
Near-term support: ~1310–1315 (recent closes + MA cluster), then 1300–1304.
Resistance: 1325–1330, then the Sept 10 high at 1332.25.
Volume spiked on the big moves (Sept 11 sell-off and several August up-days); recent volume has been more moderate.
Trade ideas:
Trend-continuation long
Buy dips toward the MA7/MA14 zone (~1315–1319) or a hold of the 1310 area.
Target: retest of 1328–1332, then a measured move higher if it breaks out.
Stop: below 1303–1305 (recent swing low / psychological level).
Rationale: Price remains above the rising MA21 and the shorter MAs are supportive; the larger uptrend is intact.
Breakout long
Enter on a decisive close above 1330–1332 on expanding volume.
Target: 1350+ area (psychological + extension).
Stop: back below the MA cluster (~1315).
Rationale: A clean break of the recent high would confirm the next leg higher in the prevailing uptrend.
Fade / short-term mean-reversion short
Sell strength into 1325–1330 if momentum stalls and volume is weak.
Target: back to the MA7/MA14 (~1316–1319) or 1310.
Stop: above 1335.
Rationale: The market has been range-bound for the last two weeks; fading the upper end of the range can work until a breakout occurs.
MA crossover / structure watch
A sustained move back above the MA7 with the MA7 turning clearly higher would reinforce the bullish case. Conversely, a close below the MA14 (~1315) followed by a break of 1300 would signal a deeper corrective phase toward the rising MA21 (~1308 and climbing).
Wheat Dec ’26 (ZWZ26)
Current values (as of 2026-09-24)
| Close (Latest) | 707.00 |
| MA7 | 718.79 |
| MA14 | 725.59 |
| MA21 | 739.81 |
Strong medium-term uptrend: Price has risen substantially from the late-June lows (~1139–1157) to a peak of 1332.25 on Sept 10. Overall gain from the start of the data is roughly +14%.
Recent consolidation after a sharp spike-and-retrace: A strong rally into early September was interrupted by a large down day on Sept 11 (–35.75 pts to 1296.50). Since then, price has recovered and is chopping in a roughly 1300–1330 range.
MA structure (bullish alignment):
MA7 ≈ MA14 and both rising gently.
MA21 is rising more steeply and remains the lowest of the three (classic bullish stacking: shorter MAs above longer MAs).
Price is hovering right around the MA7 after briefly trading above it.
Support / Resistance observations:
Near-term support: ~1310–1315 (recent closes + MA cluster), then 1300–1304.
Resistance: 1325–1330, then the Sept 10 high at 1332.25.
Volume spiked on the big moves (Sept 11 sell-off and several August up-days); recent volume has been more moderate.
Trade ideas: Trend-continuation long
Buy dips toward the MA7/MA14 zone (~1315–1319) or a hold of the 1310 area.
Target: retest of 1328–1332, then a measured move higher if it breaks out.
Stop: below 1303–1305 (recent swing low / psychological level).
Rationale: Price remains above the rising MA21 and the shorter MAs are supportive; the larger uptrend is intact.
Breakout long
Enter on a decisive close above 1330–1332 on expanding volume.
Target: 1350+ area (psychological + extension).
Stop: back below the MA cluster (~1315).
Rationale: A clean break of the recent high would confirm the next leg higher in the prevailing uptrend.
Fade / short-term mean-reversion short
Sell strength into 1325–1330 if momentum stalls and volume is weak.
Target: back to the MA7/MA14 (~1316–1319) or 1310.
Stop: above 1335.
Rationale: The market has been range-bound for the last two weeks; fading the upper end of the range can work until a breakout occurs.
MA crossover / structure watch
A sustained move back above the MA7 with the MA7 turning clearly higher would reinforce the bullish case. Conversely, a close below the MA14 (~1315) followed by a break of 1300 would signal a deeper corrective phase toward the rising MA21 (~1308 and climbing).
Key levels to watch: 1310–1315 (support / MA zone), 1325–1330, and 1332 (prior high). These observations are purely technical from the provided price history. Soybean markets are heavily influenced by weather, South American production, U.S. export demand, and USDA reports — always combine technicals with fundamentals and strict risk controls.
Tim Healy
Broker
Pure Hedge Division
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