US Stock Forecast | Futures of the three major stock indexes plummeted, Meta Muse set off “AI disruptive trading”, Anthropic plans to directly rent computing power to get rid of dependence on cloud vendors
Pre-market market trends
1. On September 23 (Wednesday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes fell sharply before the US stock market. As of press release, Dow futures were down 0.16%, S&P 500 futures were down 0.05%, and NASDAQ futures were down 0.24%.
2. As of press release, the German DAX index fell 0.75%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.08%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.26%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 0.41%.
3. As of press release, WTI crude oil rose 0.20% to $90.70 per barrel. Brent crude rose 1.02% to $100.26 per barrel.
Market news
Anthropic's deployment strengthens computing power control and seeks to reduce dependency on cloud service providers. Anthropic plans to lease up to 1 gigawatt of computing capacity from a data center developer mostly owned by Apollo Global Management (APO.US) and is currently in the early stages of negotiations. This is one of the AI company's major efforts to reduce its reliance on cloud service providers. According to people familiar with the matter, Anthropic has discussed entering the facility developed by Stream Data Centers as a direct tenant and deploying TPU designed by Broadcom (AVGO.US) and Google (GOOGL.US) in it. Anthropic is in agreement with Stream Data Centers to lease a data center with up to 1 GW of computing power. Anthropic seeks direct control of computing resources, which may reduce costs. Anthropic also discussed the possibility of Google providing a credit guarantee for the project. It's unclear what part of the project Google will guarantee.
SoftBank initiated the issuance of huge junk bonds to finance the AI layout. SoftBank has launched a deal that is poised to become one of the largest corporate junk bond issuances in history. The Japanese conglomerate is using debt investors to fund large-scale investments in the field of artificial intelligence. As one of the world's largest AI investors, SoftBank has begun to promote this multi-part deal, and preliminary price guidance for the US dollar portion is ongoing. The group's current offering aims to raise more than 11 billion US dollars, including 10 billion US dollar bonds and 1 billion euros (about 1.1 billion US dollars) of euro bonds. This offering is the latest in a series of actions by SoftBank in the bond market this year to help fund OpenAI's nearly $65 billion commitment and finance more mergers and acquisitions in the field.
US crypto regulations are scrambling to fill the vacuum: the Clarity Act ran aground in the Senate, and the SEC and CFTC quickly made up for it. Just two days after the Clarity Act failed to advance in the Senate, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) expanded its crypto regulatory rulebook with existing powers. The agency issued an order to create temporary channels for certain tokenized stock transactions, moving the financial market one step closer to round-the-clock trading. On the same day, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) submitted a crypto rulemaking proposal to the White House for review. Details of the proposal were not disclosed, but an announcement from the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) confirmed that the relevant rules are still pending review.
Iran claims that through contacts with the US through Qatar's mediator, it proposed conditions such as ending the war, stopping aggression, lifting the blockade, and unfreezing assets. According to the Islamic Republic of Iran News Agency (IRNA), Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bagae said that Iran had contacts with the US in New York through the Qatar mediator. Bagae said that Iran conveyed conditions to the US, including ending the war on all fronts and stopping what Tehran called “aggression” by the United States. He also said that Iran's conditions also include ending the maritime blockade and economic war, and unfreezing Iran's assets.
Is the US diesel export ban imminent? Trump expressed support and said he would make a decision “soon”! As diesel prices soar to record highs, rumors that the US government is preparing a ban on diesel exports have continued to ferment recently. In response, US President Trump stated on Tuesday that he supports a ban on diesel exports. Trump also said that he has made an internal appeal for a ban on diesel exports and said that a decision on whether to implement the ban will be made “soon”. US Treasury Secretary Bessent later said that the government is evaluating the viability of a ban on diesel exports based on the overall refining capacity of the United States, and studying whether a complete ban or a partial ban works better.
OECD: The AI boom is expected to offset the impact of the energy shock in the Middle East for the time being. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)'s medium-term economic outlook report, global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.9% in 2026, but this is slightly better than the 2.8% forecast in June. Looking ahead to 2027, the commodity price shock caused by the Middle East conflict is expected to drag down economic growth momentum. The OECD predicts that the global economic growth rate will only rise to 3.0%, lower than the 3.1% forecast in June. The OECD said that strong AI infrastructure spending this year, from data centers to semiconductors, has become an important pillar supporting economic resilience, driving US economic growth and boosting exports of technology products from Japan and South Korea. However, the OECD warns that the global outlook is particularly affected by factors such as energy market fluctuations, extreme weather caused by the strong El Niño phenomenon, soaring government bond yields, and disappointing returns on AI investments. If these risks become a reality, they are expected to reduce global economic growth by 0.7 percentage points and increase global inflation by 1.1 percentage points next year.
Individual stock news
Agent “reinvents” the service industry! Muse reignited “panic,” and financial stocks were “lying down.” On Tuesday, the financial sector of US stocks fell sharply by about 2% in a single day. Institutional declines such as JPMorgan Chase (JPM.US), Wells Fargo Bank (WFC.US), and Schw.US (SCHW.US) all hit multi-month highs. Insurer ALL.US (ALL.US) and travel booking platform Booking Holdings (BKNG.US) were not spared either. Analysts pointed out that AI agents can automatically complete price comparison and bill management, directly disrupting the business model that relies on “consumer inertia.”
Microsoft (MSFT.US) plans to promote Copilot's corporate discount of up to 50% and launch an AI “super application” at the same time. According to people familiar with the matter, Microsoft executives told sales staff this week that enterprise customers who promise to buy a large number of seats and make additional payments based on the usage of certain features will be authorized to offer larger discounts of 30% to 50% on their CoPilotai software subscriptions. It is reported that these discounts will begin as early as October, in parallel with Microsoft's plan to launch a revised Copilot super app. According to people familiar with the matter, the new version of Copilot is expected to be launched this week and will incorporate features such as AI coding tools and OpenClaw-style AI proxy functions into one application. Some of the app's features will be charged at an additional cost based on subscribers' usage.
The “big bears” increased shorting Micron (MU.US), warning that a reversal of the cycle would trigger a “sharp sell-off.” Michael Burry, who is famous for shorting the US subprime mortgage market in 2008, revealed the latest trading developments, further increasing short positions on Micron Technology, Dutch AI infrastructure provider Nebius Group (NBIS.US), semiconductor ETF-iShares (SOXX.US), and Palantir Technologies (PLTR.US), adding that the empty positions established this time were “not small in scale.” Burry clearly questioned the memory chip maker's valuation. He described these companies' stock prices as “rising to an outrageous level compared to themselves,” and predicted that once the cycle was reversed, the relevant individual stocks would face a “sharp sell-off.”
About a month after launch, Grok Bot, an AI agent owned by SpaceX (SPCX.US), surpassed 400,000 weekly users. Grok Bot, an AI agent product launched by SpaceX's AI division, surpassed 400,000 users about a month after launch, indicating that early demand for the product was moderate, and this product was the key for Elon Musk to achieve its AI ambitions. According to a presentation published at an event in London and participants, as of September 14, the number of weekly users of Grok Bot reached 418,000, an increase of 24% over the previous week. The latest user data for this product is currently unavailable. This proxy product is different from SpaceXAI's flagship chatbot, Grok.
Nvidia and SpaceX have successively signalled that current executives will reduce their holdings. According to a recent Form 4 filing submitted on Tuesday, Nvidia director Mark Stevens once again sold 1.4 million shares worth about US$300 million in a transaction on September 18, continuing the trend of significant holdings reduction in the chip giant's internal holdings. Prior to this latest holdings reduction, Stevens had sold approximately $640 million of Nvidia shares earlier this month. On the SpaceX side, the latest regulatory documents show that the company's president and chief operating officer Gwen Shortwell submitted documents to sell shares worth nearly $52 million; another disclosure shows that an investment account held in the name of US President Donald Trump traded the company's shares in July.
Qualcomm (QCOM.US) released the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 chip: TSMC's 2nm process, focusing on “end side smart” against the Apple A20 Pro. Qualcomm has unveiled its latest chipset for Android phones, which will be tuned for end-side artificial intelligence and will compete with the A20 Pro in the Apple (AAPL.US) iPhone. Qualcomm said in a press release on Tuesday that the new chip, branded as “Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6,” will be manufactured using TSMC's 2nm process and will be used in flagship smartphones from companies such as Motorola, Xiaomi, and ZTE. Qualcomm is now launching two versions, one of which has additional capabilities and is branded “Extreme (Extreme)”.
Novo Nordisk (NVO.US) is considering entering the hair loss market, and the “post-Wegovy” strategy is seeking new growth points. Novo Nordisk is setting its sights on the hair loss market — the Ozempic producer is seeking diversification as part of its “post-Wegovy” growth strategy. “We can use our scientific knowledge to potentially enter this field,” said Novo Nordisk Chief Scientific Officer Martin Lange (Martin Lange), adding, “This may not necessarily be the direction we will advance first, but it will be a clear possibility.”
Key economic data and event forecasts
21:45 Beijing time: The initial value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI for September.
22:05 Beijing time: Federal Reserve Governor Barr delivered a speech on the topic of “housing.”
22:30 Beijing time: Changes in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending September 18.