Huachuang Securities: New forces show differentiation and efficiency converge with traditional car companies

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Huachuang Securities released a research report saying that in 2025, the performance of new forces was divided, and passenger car investment was still dominated by flexible domestic demand, complemented by export growth. By pioneering the introduction of electric and intelligent elements on the product side, the introduction of user operations and ecological construction on the business model side, and the introduction of mobile internet on the publicity side, the new forces have achieved strong competition with traditional car companies such as BBA in recent years. Passenger car investment is still mainly based on domestic demand flexibility, and export growth. Recently, it mainly reflects uncertainty on the overseas policy side, but the general pattern of going overseas has been established. The future reconstruction of the luxury car industry depends on rising asset prices and an increase in high-quality supply. Currently, the bottom allocation is awaiting.

The main views of Huachuang Securities are as follows:

At the product level, focus on looking at the differences between old and new forces in terms of ASP and profitability

1) The new power ASP is located between overseas luxury and domestic average. It is positioned at the high-end, mainly based on the ability and potential profitability of higher pricing to accommodate electric and intelligent costs. From a year-on-year perspective, Celis/Xiaomi benefited from a contrarian increase in the volume of high-end models (+3/+20,000 yuan). Tesla remained flat, while Ideal/NIO and Xiaopeng declined (-1/-3/30,000 yuan) due to increased market competition and declining product matrices. Among them, ASP Mercedes-Benz 59 > BMW 39 > new forces are 16-310,000 yuan, and Mercedes-Benz raised the overall average price with ultra-luxury models such as Maybach, which suggests that the high-end development of new forces is the key to improving ASP.

2) There is a big difference in gross margin between the new forces, and the first tier has reached or even surpassed the level of traditional car companies. ASP and sales volume together reflect the competitiveness of the product in the market, and is comprehensively reflected in gross margin. In addition, the segmentation, product structure, and level of operation of car companies will also affect the level of gross margin. The gross profit margin was adjusted in 2025. Cylis/Xiaomi had already surpassed the BBA level, and Tesla/Ideal/Xiaopeng had already entered the BBA range; NIO was still low, but +3.7PP compared to the previous year; among ordinary domestic car companies, Geely and BYD were at the top, and Zero Run (more similar to traditional car companies, considering vertical integration of the industrial chain, cost performance positioning, etc.) was +6.2PP compared to traditional car companies. In terms of net interest rates, Xiaomi and Zero Run corrected their losses for the first time, and Xiaopeng and NIO drastically reduced their losses.

The core business model of car companies is “management of complex systems”, and it dominates the six major vehicle business lines. The trip uses this as a guide to portray differences in car companies' operations in terms of manpower, R&D, and SG&A investment and output indicators

1) Manpower: In terms of investment, the per capita salary is overseas > new forces > domestic traditions (excluding SAIC Motor's autonomy), stemming from higher labor costs overseas and the high investment of high-end brands in R&D and sales, which place more stringent talent requirements. In terms of output, the sales volume per person of R&D personnel of the new forces is already comparable to that of Great Wall, Guangzhou Automobile, and BYD. Most sales per sales staff are significantly lower than traditional car companies, while the per capita sales of managers are mostly higher; most car companies' salaries/revenue ratios are concentrated at 5% to 15%.

2) R&D: In terms of investment, R&D expenses/matrix models are higher overseas than domestic, with new domestic forces and BYD leading the way. In terms of output, R&D expenses/revenue of Tesla and Cyrus have reached high-end overseas levels. There is still a gap between NIO, Xiaopeng and traditional car companies, but there is a significant improvement; Zero Run has dropped from 9% to 7%.

3) Sales and management: In terms of investment, the new power SG&A costs/number of models sold is higher, which may be related to direct management models, salary levels, equity incentives, etc. In terms of output, SG&A fees/revenue has reached the level of traditional car companies. Xiaopeng has greatly improved, and NIO and Cyrus still have room for improvement; Zero Run has dropped from 10% to 9%, and BYD and Geely (6% to 8%) are at an excellent level.

Investment advice

By pioneering the introduction of electric and intelligent elements on the product side, the introduction of user operations and ecological construction on the business model side, and the introduction of mobile internet on the publicity side, the new forces have achieved strong competition with traditional car companies such as BBA in recent years. In 2025, the performance of the new forces was divided: in terms of sales, Xiaopeng and Xiaomi doubled, and Tesla and Ideal declined; in terms of gross margin, Xiaomi rose to second place, and Xiaopeng jumped to the first tier; Xiaomi's net interest rate was corrected for the first time, and NIO drastically reduced losses; Tesla, Cyrus, and Ideal efficiency indicators were similar to those of traditional car companies, but profits all declined. Among ordinary domestic car companies, BYD and Geely are at the top in terms of profit and efficiency indicators. Zero Run reversed losses for the first time, and cost rates fell rapidly.

In terms of investment proposals, passenger car investment is still mainly based on domestic demand flexibility, and export growth. Recently, it mainly reflects uncertainty on the overseas policy side, but a broad pattern of overseas travel has been established, and BYD, Geely Auto, and Zero Sports are recommended. Furthermore, high-end technology is the key to improving ASP and profitability. The competitive pattern of JAC in the luxury market is stable, but headwinds in the luxury car industry have led to a low target. Future industry reconstruction depends on rising asset prices and increased high-quality supply. Currently, bottom-line allocation awaits.

Risk warning: Affected by data disclosure, caliber and processing, there may be certain errors in the index calculation; the domestic economy is lower than expected, industry competition is stronger than expected, raw material price fluctuations, and the impact of overseas automobile policies.