Barclays said that if the current situation continues, oil prices may rise 50% before the market reaches equilibrium. Analyst Amarpreet Singh wrote in a September 21 report that the interruption of Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline earlier this month highlighted the risks facing the continued slow recovery of Middle Eastern oil production. Singh wrote that inventory and consumption metrics showed “prices still have a long way to go before supply and demand balance,” adding that this increased the risk of the bank raising the price forecast. Although the current net supply loss from the Middle East is estimated at 4.7 million b/d, compared to 12 million to 13 million b/d at the beginning of the war, “but on the other hand, the current inventory buffer is also much smaller.” Brent is expected to reach $95 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, followed by $90, $85, $85, and $80 per barrel for the next four quarters, respectively.

Barclays said that if the current situation continues, oil prices may rise 50% before the market reaches equilibrium. Analyst Amarpreet Singh wrote in a September 21 report that the interruption of Saudi Arabia's east-west oil pipeline earlier this month highlighted the risks facing the continued slow recovery of Middle Eastern oil production. Singh wrote that inventory and consumption metrics showed “prices still have a long way to go before supply and demand balance,” adding that this increased the risk of the bank raising the price forecast. Although the current net supply loss from the Middle East is estimated at 4.7 million b/d, compared to 12 million to 13 million b/d at the beginning of the war, “but on the other hand, the current inventory buffer is also much smaller.” Brent is expected to reach $95 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, followed by $90, $85, $85, and $80 per barrel for the next four quarters, respectively.