AlphaValue/Baader Europe Cuts Volkswagen Forecasts After FY26 Profit Warning

11:23 AM EDT, 09/21/2026 (MT Newswires) -- AlphaValue/Baader Europe downwardly revised its financial forecasts for Volkswagen (VOW.F, VOW3.F) following the German automaker's profit warning, taking into account the weak market environment in China and special charges. "Special effects of ~EUR10bn are expected to weigh on FY26 operating profit, of which EUR0.9bn was already recognised in H1 2026. The remainder includes a ~EUR6bn non-cash impairment on goodwill allocated to the Porsche business segment, and ~EUR2bn combined from the expanded early-retirement schemes, the planned sale of the Osnabrück plant, and non-cash asset impairments in China," analysts said Monday. "We have adjusted our expectations for both the Audi and Volkswagen Passenger Cars brands to reflect a further deterioration in the market environment, especially in China, and an accelerated shift in demand toward battery-electric vehicles. Our own view is that VW will not pause its FY26 dividend, however, we note the Board will decide on the FY26 dividend proposal at the AGM in early 2027." As such, the research firm reduced its 2026 and 2027 EPS estimates by 15.1% and 0.23%, respectively, to 14.1 euros and 20.6 euros. In terms of revenue, analysts now forecast a 1.5% year-over-year decline in group sales to 315 billion euros for 2026 and lowered its return on sales expectations to 1% from 4%. The reduce-rated stock has a price target of 72.6 euros.