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    International Paper (IP) Could Be 28% Undervalued Following Profitability Concerns

    Simply Wall St·09/19/2026 14:24:08
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    International Paper (IP) is back on investors’ radar after a stretch of weak long-term revenue growth and a steady decline in earnings per share raised fresh questions about profitability.

    Over the past month, International Paper’s 30-day share price return has fallen 15.9%, extending a year-to-date share price decline of 14.2%. The 1-year total shareholder return is down 22%, so recent weakness contrasts with a still positive 3-year total shareholder return of 15.7% and points to fading momentum as investors reassess profitability risks.

    Compare International Paper's recent setback with peers by scanning our curated 33 high quality undervalued stocks, which also face profitability questions yet trade at compressed valuations.

    Bulls see a beaten up International Paper trading at a steep discount to analyst targets and intrinsic value estimates. Bears point to weak long term earnings power. Which side does the current valuation actually support?

    Most Popular Narrative: 28% Undervalued

    On the most followed valuation view, International Paper’s fair value of $48.00 sits well above the last close at $34.53, so the debate turns to whether the turnaround story justifies that gap.

    The company's substantial capital investments in automation, advanced manufacturing, and mill reliability funded by targeted asset divestitures and plant closures are expected to reduce operating costs and materially expand net margins over the next several years. Strategic focus on commercial excellence including the 80/20 model and improved customer service is resulting in market share gains in North America and Europe, which should help close the revenue gap with industry peers and lift future earnings.

    See why 14 investors see International Paper as 28% undervalued.

    That narrative applies a 7.42% discount rate and arrives at a fair value of $48.00, implying International Paper trades at a 28.1% discount to that estimate on $34.53. The gap reflects expectations for revenue to reach $26.6b and profit margins near 7.0% over the forecast period, alongside a future P/E of 17.2x that sits below the current 19.3x industry level used in the narrative’s framework.

    Result: Fair Value of $48.00 (UNDERVALUED)

    Still, persistent mill reliability issues that already left an estimated US$150 million in profit on the table, along with restructuring hurdles in EMEA, could easily derail the International Paper turnaround story.

    Find out about the key risks to this International Paper narrative.

    Next Steps

    Mixed messages on International Paper's outlook can make it hard to know which camp to trust, so move quickly and weigh the data yourself by reviewing the 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond International Paper?

    Do not stop your research with International Paper alone, because the strongest portfolios often come from comparing several high quality opportunities side by side.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.