Apple (AAPL.US) shook five weeks of continuous growth: Evercore raised its target price to $380, saying the iPhone switching cycle was better than expected

The Zhitong Finance App learned that the stock price of Apple (AAPL.US) did not change much before the market on Friday and is expected to record a fifth consecutive week of gains. Wall Street's latest comments suggest that demand for its latest iPhone lineup may be stronger than expected. Evercore ISI raised Apple's price target from $365 to $380 while maintaining an “outperforming the market” rating. Bank of America, on the other hand, reaffirmed Apple's “buy” rating and target price of $370.

Evercore: The survey points to a strong switching cycle, and there is room for growth in pricing

This increase is based in part on an annual survey of nearly 4,000 consumers, which Evercore says points to a strong iPhone switching cycle. The bank's analysts believe that in this rotation, iPhone sales are expected to perform well, and listed pricing as another potential source of upward growth, saying that the pricing of some models in the lineup may increase by more than 20%.

The survey also showed that 53% of respondents plan to buy a Pro model (historical average of 51%), and the proportion planning to buy the Pro Max rose from 29% last year to 32%; the drivers for consumer switching also changed from AI features last year to hardware upgrades such as cameras, batteries, and screens — Evercore believes that this difference contributes to the sustainability of this cycle, and interest driven by Apple Intelligence last year ultimately failed to materialize. The survey also showed that with the Pro model rising by $100 and consumers choosing higher storage configurations, the average selling price is being further boosted.

Apple's press conference on September 9 raised the price of each Pro model by $100: the iPhone 18 Pro starts at $1,199, and the iPhone 18 Pro Max starts at $1,299 (both start at 256GB, and the maximum storage option is 2TB). Apple also released its first folding screen phone, the iPhone Duo, with a starting price of 1,999 US dollars. Pre-sale of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max began on October 16; the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max began pre-sale on September 12 and officially went on sale on September 18.

The other side of the price increase is cost. According to TrendForce estimates, the storage cost of the 256GB version of the iPhone 18 Pro increased by nearly 400% year on year, and the share of storage in the machine's material cost rose from about 10% to 34%; domestic media previously reported that Apple had accepted Samsung's storage offer for the first quarter of 2027, up 30% to 40% from the third quarter of this year. This is also the origin of differences between sellers on gross margin judgments — a significant portion of the price increase was eaten up by the cost of parts.

In terms of product pace, this fall release only covers Pro models and the folding screen Duo. The standard iPhone 18, iPhone 18e, and second-generation iPhone Air will all be postponed to the spring of 2027; the Duo will not start pre-sale until October 16, about a month later than the Pro model.

Bank of America: Carrier promotions are more generous, which largely offset price increases

Bank of America also has a constructive view on the current iPhone cycle, citing increased trade-off incentives from US wireless carriers. Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan (Wamsi Mohan) reports that the maximum discount for the iPhone 18 Pro Max has been raised from $1,100 to $1,200 for the iPhone 17 Pro Max, an increase roughly comparable to Apple's $100 price increase for the latest Pro model.

Mohan reiterated Apple's “buy” rating and a target price of $370, and said more generous carrier promotions should help support demand in the face of higher device prices.

According to the plan announced by the operator, T-Mobile, AT&T, and Verizon have all reached a maximum discount or subsidy amount of $1,200; of these, Verizon and AT&T usually require a discounted model for iPhone 14 or later, and T-Mobile's threshold is iPhone 15 Pro or update—the promotion clearly favors users with newer models. Mohan also warned that the discount does not eliminate upfront expenses: consumers still have to pay an activation fee and pay sales tax at the full retail price. The initial cash expenses for the iPhone 18 Pro are about $291 to $296, Pro Max is about $400 to $405; the operator's installment plan is mostly 36 months.

Wall Street in its entirety

In terms of the stock price, Apple did not change much before the market; over the past day, retail sentiment in this stock on Stocktwits was in a “bearish” range. Despite market concerns about price increases and demand for new models, Apple's stock price remained resilient overall during the launch period. Of the 44 analysts covering Apple, 25 gave a “strong buy” or “buy” rating, 13 recommended “holding,” and only 6 recommended “selling.”

According to market data, Apple closed at 337.00 US dollars on September 17, up 1.38% in a single day. The cumulative increase during the year was about 23.7%, with a total market value of about 4.9 trillion US dollars; the average target price for institutional sellers was about 337 US dollars. The seller's target price distribution is also scattered: UBS maintained a “neutral” rating and a target price of $296 after the folding screen Duo was released, while Melius Research maintained a “buy” and a target price of $370, all of which were significantly different from Evercore's $380.

Delivery time readings are mixed: three agencies give two sets of conclusions

Agencies tracking the pre-sale delivery period came to different conclusions about “whether demand is strong or not”. Evercore ISI said in a September 14 report that the average delivery time for the iPhone 18 Pro Max is about 25 days (19 days in the same period last year), 16 days for the Pro (12 days in the same period last year), and sees the longer delivery times in the US, UK, and Germany as a positive sign of demand.

The Bank of America reported the opposite direction for the same period: as of September 14, the average global delivery time for the iPhone 18 Pro was 14 days (18 days in the same period last year), and the Pro Max was 18 days (25 days in the same period last year). The bank considered that this round was “not as comparable as the previous cycle” because Apple only released Pro models in this round, the pre-sale changed from Friday to Saturday, and the price was higher. After tracking six markets, Jefferies said that Pro Max's delivery time was reduced by 5 to 11 days year-on-year, and based on this, it maintained a “outperforming market” rating and a target price of $263.66.

The J.P. Morgan Chase tracking report on September 17 showed that as of September 16, the global average delivery time for the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max was 19 days and 26 days, respectively, which is basically the same as the same period last year, but the expansion of delivery times in the first week (12 days, 7 days) significantly exceeded the same period last year (5 days, 2 days); the bank believes that the short delivery period in the first week reflects the concentration of supplies on high-end models rather than weak demand.