US stock outlook | Futures of the three major stock indexes rose sharply, oil prices fell slightly, and Sanwu Day hit tonight or brought a liquidity test

Pre-market market trends

1. On September 18 (Friday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes rose sharply before the US stock market. As of press release, Dow futures were up 0.04%, S&P 500 futures were up 0.16%, and NASDAQ futures were up 0.36%.

2. As of press release, the German DAX index fell 0.93%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.91%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.95%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 0.97%.

3. As of press release, WTI crude oil fell 0.70% to $101.20 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell 1.61% to $103.13 per barrel.

Market news

Goldman Sachs: Concerns about a “profit bubble” have been exaggerated, and the S&P 500 is expected to rise to 8,700 points next year. Goldman Sachs Group strategists said that the impressive profit performance of US companies is being supported by a steady economic outlook and the artificial intelligence (AI) boom, which means that concerns about a “profit bubble” have been exaggerated. According to the data, profits of S&P 500 index constituents jumped about 30% in the first two quarters, respectively, making them among the strongest performers on record. Profit expectations for the full year also reached the highest level since the post-COVID-19 rebound in 2021. Although this growth rate shows that companies are “overprofitable” as AI investment surges, the Goldman Sachs Strategy Team, led by Ben Snyder, said they expect profit growth to slow down rather than completely collapse in the next few years. Snyder wrote in a report: “Market pricing reflects expectations of continued profit growth, but also has reasonable doubts about the sustainability of current profitability.” Goldman Sachs predicts that corporate profits will increase by 11% next year, and is expected to push the S&P 500 index up 14% to about 8,700 points over the next year.

The Three Witches Day is coming! The market faced a liquidity test on Friday. As far as tonight is concerned, Wall Street is bracing for possible volatility. On Friday, US stocks will usher in the quarterly “Three Witch Days”, that is, the three types of contracts for stock index futures, stock index options, and individual stock options expire at the same time. According to Bluekurtic Market Insights, its historical performance can be described as notoriously poor. Data tracking performance since 2000 shows a fairly consistent trend: since 2012, the S&P 500 index has closed down 12 out of 14 “Three Witch Days.” The only two exceptions during this period were in 2017 and 2025, respectively, when the index barely recorded marginal gains of 0.2% and 0.5%. As more than $2 trillion of nominal delta options expire, market observers warned that this quarterly liquidity event could trigger downward fluctuations. This upcoming expiration event comes at the time of the most challenging month for the stock market to perform in years. Although the S&P 500 has so far withstood these seasonal headwinds with an unusually calm 0.3% increase, Friday's large-scale expiration event could be the ultimate test to test this month's trend so far.

The wave of sell-off in US debt ushered in the “dawn”! A 5% high interest rate would attract a crazy influx of capital. Although the world's largest bond market is shrouded in anxiety, some investors see an attractive reason to buy — earnings. One possible “dawn” for investors is that they now have an opportunity that has only been occasional since the global financial crisis — to buy now and lock in an annualized return of around 5% for the next 10 years or more. A growing number of money managers are finding this opportunity difficult to turn down. According to Morningstar data, as of the end of August, there was a net inflow of 625 billion US dollars into US bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) this year, the highest level for the same period since statistics began in 2010. Asset management firms, including Pacific Investment Management and Pioneer Group, expect this inflow of capital to accelerate as investors realign their portfolios and shift from stocks to fixed income assets.

The “new king of debt” Gundlach warned that the next round of recession may ignite the US debt crisis, and US debt will no longer be a safe haven. Jeffrey Gunlach, CEO of Dual Tier Capital and the “King of New Debt,” warned that the next round of economic downturn in the US could trigger a debt crisis and drive long-term yields on US bonds to rise sharply — this will break the traditional perception that “bonds are always a safe haven during times of economic turmoil” for decades. This scenario could force the Federal Reserve and the Treasury to adopt unconventional policies, such as the Federal Reserve restarting a “reversal operation” to buy long-term bonds, or even restructuring debt. He said that he is focusing on low-term assets to protect funds under Dual Tier Capital from further increases in interest rates. He said, “Once the economy falls into recession, the market will focus heavily on the financial situation. Budget deficits could easily reach 12% of GDP. That would generate around $3 trillion in interest expenses each year, and this burden is simply unsustainable.”

At the next stop in gas prices, J.P. Morgan Chase will also have a hard time giving an answer! The end of the war is difficult to predict, and the “temporary supply cut off” hypothesis is facing a reset. J.P. Morgan said that energy risks in the Middle East are being restricted from straits to damage to alternative transportation routes themselves, making it more and more difficult to maintain the predictive premise that “the conflict will temporarily disrupt and supply will resume soon.” The bank's analysts said in a report that the bank previously assumed that several economic red lines the US government was unwilling to cross — including oil prices rising above $100 per barrel, gasoline prices close to $5 per gallon, and soaring US Treasury yields — have all appeared, making the exit strategy even more unclear. Analysts said that the global inventory buffer was reduced during the war, but there is still enough buffer space to limit further increases in crude oil prices. However, the bank estimates that if supply flows in the Middle East remain at current levels, oil prices for the fourth quarter and December 2026 may be 7 and 8 US dollars higher than the current forecast of about 80 US dollars and 78 US dollars per barrel, respectively.

Individual stock news

Is Nvidia's (NVDA.US) growth far from over? Hwang In-hoon expects chip sales to double in the next year. Nvidia CEO Hwang In-hoon predicts that with the accelerated penetration of AI technology into various industries, the company's chip sales are expected to double in the next year, indicating that global demand for AI infrastructure will continue to grow strongly. Despite recent market concerns about the potential risks of rapid AI development, Wong In-hoon remains optimistic about the industry's prospects. Nvidia's previously announced performance outlook also shows that demand for AI is still strong. Last month, the company expected sales to increase by about 70% year-on-year in the next fiscal year. Nvidia also said that if sufficient chip supply can be obtained to meet rapidly growing market demand, the company's revenue may even double.

SpaceX (SPCX.US)'s AI division targets “bankruptcy data”! It is proposed to acquire customer and operating information from struggling startups and increase Grok model training. According to people familiar with the matter, Musk's SpaceX has discussed purchasing customer and operating data from troubled or bankrupt startups, hoping to obtain more high-quality data at a relatively low cost to improve the performance of its artificial intelligence models. Although SpaceXAI is studying to obtain more external data sources, Musk's huge commercial footprint itself is still an important source of data for Grok, including even information generated by SpaceX employees. This statement means that SpaceXAI's future data strategy may adopt an “internal+external” parallel model: on the one hand, it will continue to use data generated by Musk's companies and platforms such as SpaceX and X, and on the other hand, it will further expand the breadth and expertise of training data by purchasing external data sets.

Lucid (LCID.US) CEO: The restructuring consultancy cooperation came to an end, and a roadmap to reverse losses emerged. Lucid CEO Napoli said the electric car maker has completed a partnership with restructuring advisory team AlixPartners LLP, which shows that the troubled company is on a clearer path to reversing operations. Previously, the company introduced AlixPartners to help it achieve its $1.4 billion cash savings target this year. Napoli has been evaluating the company's operations in an effort to optimize business, cut costs, and ensure the smooth implementation of the new mid-size car. Napoli took charge of Lucid earlier this year and has taken measures such as large-scale cost cuts, leadership adjustments, and layoffs to deal with weak demand from American consumers.

Key economic data and event forecasts

At 21:15 Beijing time, the monthly rate of US industrial output in August (%)