Interest rate hike hits Bitcoin holds 75,000: the truth about decoupling US stocks

According to Woofun AI, the implementation of the Federal Reserve's rate hike did not cause market panic. Bitcoin stabilized around $7.5 million, while US stocks declined markedly. The core of this divergence is that the market has absorbed expectations of interest rate hikes ahead of schedule, and some negative factors were released through price adjustments before the meeting, causing the actual impact after implementing the policy to be far lower than the level of sharp fluctuations previously feared.

The monetary policy adjustment was unanimously approved by all 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which decided to raise the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% — 4%. This is the first time since 2023 that the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, marking a return to austerity in monetary policy after a long period of easing or suspension.

Although the rate hike is in line with mainstream expectations, the decision itself confirms the importance the Federal Reserve attaches to inflationary pressure in the current economic environment. It is worth noting that this resolution is not an isolated incident, but is based on a comprehensive assessment of macroeconomic data, which aims to curb overheated price levels by increasing capital costs. The market had already set a very high price on the probability of interest rate hikes before the meeting, so when the results arrived as scheduled, it did not trigger a large-scale panic sell-off; instead, investors turned their attention to the Federal Reserve's guidance on the future path.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell clearly sent a signal in his speech after the meeting, stressing that inflation is still the most pressing issue at present. He pointed out that since the June meeting, the US economy has strengthened further and the labor market has remained stable overall, but the rate of price decline has not reached the level expected by policy makers. Powell warned that attention to inflation should not be relaxed prematurely because the job market has not deteriorated significantly. Since inflation is still above the long-term target of 2%, monetary policy must remain sufficiently restrictive.

The more critical variable is the change in interest rate forecasts. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, the latest bitmap raised the median federal funds rate forecast for the end of 2026 to 4.1% from 3.8% in June. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve expects the PCE inflation rate to be 3.7% in 2026 and the core PCE inflation rate to be 3.4%, both significantly higher than the 2% target.

This means that the high interest rate environment may last longer than expected, and the possibility of further interest rate hikes is not ruled out. Powell emphasized that future policies will strictly rely on data and will not promise the next steps in advance.

The underlying reason why Bitcoin stands alone is the structural weakening of its correlation with traditional assets. According to the data, the correlation between Bitcoin and assets such as the US dollar, S&P 500, and NASDAQ has declined, and the influence of regulatory policies, crypto market capital flows, and the industry's own events on short-term prices is increasing. Previously, due to poor progress in the clear law, there was an increase in bullish liquidations in the derivatives market, and some negative losses were reflected in prices before the meeting, so the selling pressure was controlled after the interest rate hike was implemented.

However, this does not mean that the influence of the Federal Reserve is weakening. High interest rates are still driving up capital costs, and rising US bond yields have also raised the opportunity cost of holding US dollar assets. The current price performance of Bitcoin only shows that short-term selling pressure is manageable. What really determines the subsequent market is still the change in global capital liquidity and the evolution of market risk appetite.