Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?
U.S. stock futures are trending higher early Thursday as investors digest the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate hike and a hawkish outlook, alongside escalating global tensions.
The Polymarket (CRYPTO: POL) crowd is heavily bullish for the Sept. 17 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 17?” contract currently reflects an 80% chance of a higher open.
Why That Number Matters
Traders are navigating post-Fed market reactions alongside persistent geopolitical pressures:
- Positive Index Futures: Equity futures are pointing to a green open across major benchmarks. Dow Jones futures rose 0.56%. S&P 500 futures advanced 0.52%. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.58%, and Russell 2000 futures ticked up 0.50%.
- The Fed’s Hawkish Hike & Iran’s Response: The Federal Reserve delivered a 25-basis-point rate hike to a target range of 3.75%-4.00% on Wednesday. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh‘s press conference conveyed a hawkish tone prioritizing price stability, while Fed projections point to one more 25-basis-point hike this year, followed by rates remaining at that level through 2027. In response, Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf mocked the decision, stating, “you can’t 25bp a chokepoint.” He argued that Tehran sets the real risk premium via the Strait of Hormuz.
- Geopolitics & Energy: Brent crude futures currently trade at $105.37 a barrel, while WTI crude sits at $101.93. Additionally, China’s top newspaper accused the U.S. of “naked double standards” regarding AI distillation. This sets a tense backdrop ahead of an expected meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
- Earnings & Eco Data: Thursday’s earnings docket includes reports from VinFast Auto Ltd. (NASDAQ:VFS), and Hub Group Inc. (NASDAQ:HUBG). On the economic front, initial jobless claims, August’s pending home sales, and housing starts will be released today.
The Bear Case and Market Outlook
BlackRock Chief Investment Officer Rick Rieder warned that the $40 trillion national debt is a mounting fiscal burden. Because of these concerns and attractive bond yields, he downgraded his outlook on U.S. equities to a “B minus.” Rieder noted that higher real rates are creating systemic friction and rollover financing risks for leverage-dependent sectors.
However, after the 10-year Treasury yield recently climbed above 5% to a 19-year high, he highlighted a rare entry point for fixed-income buyers. He observed that 95% of the time yields reach this level, it historically presents a very favorable forward investment environment.
How the Previous Bet Played Out
The Sept. 16 Polymarket contract resolved “Down,” recording $55,831 in total trading volume.
On Wednesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed mixed. SPY fell 0.44% to $754.05, while QQQ rose 0.026% to $704.72. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), also ended 1.15% lower at $515.22.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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