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    Does OpenAI IPO Delay Change The Bull Case For SoftBank Stock?

    Simply Wall St·09/16/2026 08:25:12
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    • SoftBank Group has been in focus after OpenAI postponed its IPO, while SoftBank continues with large committed funding to the AI firm through an $11.87b loan and scheduled investments.
    • The combination of delayed liquidity from OpenAI and ongoing funding obligations highlights how SoftBank’s AI push is increasing financing costs and balance sheet pressure. This is occurring at the same time that AI leaders publicly call for slower development on safety grounds.
    • We will now look at how SoftBank Group’s investment narrative is affected by delayed OpenAI liquidity and rising AI safety concerns.

    Scan beyond SoftBank Group and stress test your AI thesis against a curated set of 60 AI infrastructure stocks that are powering the same trend in very different ways.

    SoftBank Group Investment Narrative Recap

    To own SoftBank Group, you need to believe in its role as a major AI investor, with Arm, OpenAI and the Vision Funds all tied to that theme. The short term story hinges on whether these assets can be monetised cleanly without stressing the balance sheet. The recent OpenAI IPO delay affects timing more than the core AI exposure.

    The biggest immediate risk still sits around leverage and funding costs rather than headline share price moves. An 11.87 billion dollar loan for OpenAI plus the scheduled October payment increase dependence on capital markets. If AI exits slow or safety debates drag out, liquidity and debt coverage remain a central concern.

    The most relevant development here is SoftBank Group securing the 11.87 billion dollar two year loan to fund OpenAI, alongside an expected total commitment close to 65 billion dollars by October. That facility shores up near term funding for the OpenAI stake and helps explain why short term share moves around the IPO delay have been so sharp.

    For you, the operational question is whether this extra borrowing can be supported by cash generation, asset sales or later listings without eroding flexibility. Investors already know debt is not well covered by operating cash flow, so execution on exits, Arm’s contribution and any Vision Fund realisations becomes a key catalyst to watch.

    SoftBank Group's current analyst story points to ¥10,016.8b revenue and ¥783.3b earnings by 2029, anchored on revenue growing 7.8% per year and a projected drop in profit from ¥4,908.4b today. This implies an earnings decline of about ¥4,125.1b over that period.

    Uncover how SoftBank Group's fair value indicates a 29% potential upside to its current price before traders close that gap.

    TSE:9984 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    TSE:9984 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    Some of the most optimistic analysts frame the OpenAI partnership as a catalyst rather than a financing headache. Before this news, their models were built around revenue reaching ¥10,877.1b and earnings of ¥1,318.4b by 2029. You can see how views on SoftBank Group can split sharply, and why these narratives might now shift.

    Explore 4 other SoftBank Group fair value estimates, including one that suggests there could be as much as 81% upside from the current price.

    Form Your Own Verdict

    Don't just follow the ticker; dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond SoftBank Group?

    If the SoftBank Group story has sharpened your AI and risk radar, you can broaden that work by scanning a wider field of stocks using the Simply Wall St Screener. You can pressure test your thesis, compare balance sheet strength and see how different business models handle growth, debt and cash generation.

    • If income is a priority, start with companies that combine higher yields with resilience by reviewing 17 dividend fortresses.
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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.