SoftBank CDS is approaching a three-year high! OpenAI financing concerns ferment and “paper wealth” will make it difficult to quench the thirst for cash

The Zhitong Finance App learned that SoftBank Group (SoftBank Group)'s credit default swap (CDS) is hovering near a three-year high. Traders are evaluating the potential impact of the OpenAI financing plan, and OpenAI is one of SoftBank's biggest bets. According to data provider CMA, SoftBank's five-year CDS reported around 383.2 basis points, close to the highest level since 2023.

SoftBank has pledged to invest $64.6 billion in OpenAI. The ChatGPT developer is in preliminary negotiations with investors on a new round of financing, which may be valued at over $1.2 trillion and will be carried out before the initial public offering (IPO). OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said earlier that the company's long-awaited IPO is still in progress, but it won't land this year.

“Financing costs are rising,” analyst Sharon Chen wrote on Wednesday, adding that SoftBank offshore bond spreads widened due to supply concerns and rising exposure to OpenAI. She added that the IPO delay could delay SoftBank's ability to cash out OpenAI's holdings.

SoftBank recently raised 1 trillion yen through retail bonds in Japan, and is also preparing for potential overseas bond issuance. The widening CDS spread may put pressure on the terms of future bond issuance.

SoftBank's bet on OpenAI began in early 2023. At that time, Microsoft and OpenAI began a tug-of-war over the governance structure. Sun Zhengyi led the Vision Fund to enter the market decisively, and the investment progressed in stages thereafter.

However, there is a fundamental mismatch between paper earnings and cash liquidity. OpenAI has not yet been listed, and its shares cannot be monetized in the open market, yet SoftBank needs to continue to fulfill its investment commitments with real money.

OpenAI's own financial situation is also fueling market concerns. In the first quarter of 2026, OpenAI had revenue of 5.7 billion US dollars, but the operating loss was as high as 9.3 billion US dollars, which was reversed to 1.6 US dollars for every dollar earned; the operating loss in the second quarter further expanded to 12.3 billion US dollars.

HSBC predicts that OpenAI's cash consumption will reach 17 billion US dollars for the full year of 2026, with an average daily consumption of more than 46 million US dollars. Revenue growth depends entirely on computing power investment, and will never be able to develop positive hematopoietic capacity. This means that even if SoftBank completes the full $64.6 billion capital injection, OpenAI will continue to require external funding for blood transfusions in the foreseeable future.

S&P Global Ratings has downgraded SoftBank's credit outlook from stable to negative due to this investment. Its analysts bluntly said, “Arm's credit situation is stable, but OpenAI is very risky. This is a startup with significant AI innovation risks and faces a lot of competition.”