CITIC Securities: Insurance industry development logic shifts to “capital return driven” dividend attributes further highlighted

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CITIC Securities released a research report saying that on September 10, 2026, the press conference of the State Information Office announced the official launch of the “15th Five-Year Plan for Building a Strong Financial Country”, which was interpreted by relevant officials from the four departments on the same stage. Financial supervision goes hand in hand with the three lines of “inventory liquidation+capital supplement+anti-internal filing”. The insurance industry's positioning has been upgraded, tasks have been refined, and the policy system is sound, forming the four-in-one “stable function, strong governance, expanding services, and attracting long-term money”. The industry is under pressure from short-term premiums, and the quality and efficiency of operations are expected to continue to improve. The competitive advantage of leading institutions is further highlighted, and the development logic is switched from “scale-driven” to “capital-return driven”. The sector is expected to further highlight dividend attributes in addition to the market beta attributes. 1) Main line 1: Focus on financial insurance companies with strong ability to continuously return capital and dividend, life insurance companies with clear dividend rules and expected to improve dividend levels; 2) Main line 2: Focus on large insurance companies with outstanding comprehensive strength and service advantages.

CITIC Securities's main views are as follows:

The system guarantees for the implementation of the plan have been further improved.

On September 10, 2026, the State Information Office announced the official launch of the “Fifteenth Five-Year Plan for Building a Strong Financial Country” (hereinafter referred to as the Financial Power Plan), which was interpreted by relevant officials from the four departments on the same stage. The policy interface path is: the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee passed the “15th Five-Year Plan” plan proposal → the National People's Congress approved the “15th Five-Year Plan” plan outline, and passed the National Development Planning Law at the same time → formulating the “15th Five-Year Plan” for building a strong financial country in accordance with the requirements of the outline. The Financial Power Plan is a detailed arrangement of the national master plan in the financial field, and will be gradually implemented through departmental supporting policies and regulatory measures.

The main focus is on refining targets and improving the regulatory framework.

Form a three-level “outline - plan - action plan” system, clarify the “two steps” for 2030 and 2035, and use “risk prevention and strong supervision” as an important foundation for promoting high-quality development. Monetary policy further clarifies the goal of downsizing quantitative intermediation and focuses on interest rate regulation; the capital market discloses data on the progress of the reform (IPO review takes about 6 months, net purchases of A-shares over 600 billion yuan in medium- and long-term capital); and financial supervision progresses along the three lines of “stock liquidation+capital supplement+anti-internal volume.”

Insurance upgrades positioning, refinement of tasks, and systematization of documents.

Positioned as “stable function, strong governance, expanding services, and attracting long-term money”, the average comprehensive solvency ratio of insurance companies at the end of 2025 was 181.1%, and the overall capital level remained adequate. The mission covers “integration of reporting and banking”, technology insurance, agricultural insurance, pension health, disaster risk reduction and inclusive insurance. Since January 2024, 27 policy documents and supporting arrangements have covered four types of institutional arrangements and eight business lines, and supervision links before, during, and after the fact have continued to be strengthened.

Short-term premiums in the industry are under pressure, and the quality and efficiency of operations are expected to continue to improve, and the competitive advantages of leading institutions are further highlighted.

The debt-side fixed interest rate linkage mechanism continues to operate. Research values have recently rebounded steadily (1.94% in July 2026). The dynamic pricing mechanism mitigates the risk of interest spreads and losses for new businesses; “integration of reporting” on the cost side to achieve dual coverage of channels and insurance types; the “Insurance Law” has been revised, and the “Measures for the Management of Insurance Companies' Assets and Liabilities” have strengthened quantitative index restrictions. The short-term premium growth rate is still under pressure, but the new business value of the five listed insurers increased by about 5%-34% year-on-year in the first half of 2026 (most companies achieved double-digit growth). The competitive advantage of leading institutions is expected to be further consolidated, and the industry is showing a trend where scale growth is pressured, operational quality and efficiency are improved, and concentration is expected to increase.

Risk factors:

Long-term interest rates declined; product and channel transformation fell short of expectations; capital constraints increased; policy implementation effects fell short of expectations; fluctuations in investment returns, etc.