Homrich & Berg says rising Treasury yields keep pressure on S&P 500 valuations

• Homrich & Berg flagged a new stocks-bonds regime as the 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5% for the first time since late 2007.
• Equity valuations face ongoing pressure as yields reprice; the S&P 500 forward P/E fell to just over 19x from 23.2x.
• Trailing P/E slipped to 26.2x from 28.8x; the firm’s fair-value model now puts equities roughly fairly valued.
• Rising yields are no longer a reliable directional signal for stocks; the key swing factor is earnings growth, not rates.
• AI-related spending, commodity prices, federal debt supply, and capital spending were cited as key forces keeping upward pressure on yields.

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