Difficulty increased by 4.7%: Bitcoin needs to break $82,900 to protect the profits of mining companies

According to Woofun AI, the Bitcoin network experienced a round of price recovery and a significant increase in mining revenue in August, but this advantage is facing pressure to adjust the difficulty level soon. Luxor's analysis indicates that as new blocks are generated faster than the standard time of 10 minutes, the network mechanism will automatically increase the computational workload, leading to a decrease in revenue per unit of computing power, and mining companies need to be wary of the risk of profits being eroded.

Judging from the current state of computing power, the estimated computing power of the network should remain above 900 ahashes per second, but there are differences in the estimates given by different data sources. Mempool.space recorded a three-day average hashrate of 951.25 ahash/second, the seven-day average hashrate reported by Hashrate Index was 943 ahh/s, and the 30-day average hashrate was 928 ahh/s. These estimates based on a specific time period are not a direct measurement of total real-time computing power, but they reflect the current competitive landscape. When Bitcoin's price was around $79,020, the Hashrate Index calculated that the spot hashrate price was $39.25 per petahash per day. Converted to BTC, it was 0.00049578 bitcoins per petahash per day.

Notably, the average transaction fee for each block is only 0.0183 bitcoins, accounting for only 0.59% of the block rewards received by miners, which means there is almost no buffer space in the revenue structure. According to data compiled by Woofun AI, if Bitcoin prices, transaction fees, and machine operation time remain unchanged, the expected 4.6976% increase in difficulty will reduce the hashpower price by about 4.49%, from $39.25 per day to about $37.49 per petahash/day. Since the price and difficulty of computing power fluctuated in reverse, the actual decrease was slightly less than the increase in difficulty. The calculation method is the current revenue rate divided by 1.046976.

In terms of cost models, machines with different efficiency are very different in their sensitivity to price fluctuations. Based on the $48 per megawatt-hour electricity standard adopted by Luxor in the August analysis, simulations show that machines with less than about 30.5 joule/terahash of computing power can cover electricity expenses. The profit and loss threshold of a machine with computing power between 30.5 joule/terahash and 34.6 joule/terahash fluctuates as the price of Bitcoin changes. However, machines with computing power higher than 34.6 joules/terahash can't cover electricity costs even when Bitcoin is as high as $84,000.

This conclusion relates only to electricity costs and does not include pool management fees, cooling, maintenance, downtime, debt repayment, and business operating expenses, so the actual profit threshold is higher. Recently, miners sold BTC at the current price, and Canan Technology (CAN.US) sees this as a capital allocation act rather than being forced to sell. If the price of Bitcoin remains around $79,000 and the difficulty increases, the price of computing power will drop to a high level of around $37, and inefficient machines will face greater pressure.

Taken together, $82,900 is the key threshold for offsetting the negative effects of the increase in difficulty. If the price falls below this level, the expected increase in difficulty will partially offset the profit benefits in August. The final profit impact depends on the actual adjustment and the operating efficiency and electricity costs of each mining company. The Federal Reserve's decision trends and Bitcoin's market response are still uncertain, and miners' money management strategies will be adjusted accordingly. If the price of Bitcoin rises faster than the difficulty level, miners can maintain the current price recovery trend; conversely, inefficient computing power devices will fall into trouble more quickly.

This competitive landscape is clearly visible, and mining companies need to find a new balance between efficiency and cost to cope with increasingly fierce online competition.