The probability of a clear bill falls short, Bitcoin falls below 79,000, and the crypto market is under pressure alone

According to Woofun AI, Polymarket forecast data revealed a sharp deterioration in the prospects for approval of the “Clarity Act”, which directly caused the Bitcoin price to fall under pressure, and market sentiment changed from optimistic to cautious.

According to data compiled by Woofun AI, Bitcoin slipped from Monday's high of $79,427 to $76,862, down 1.7% intraday and 6.6% from the monthly peak of $82,284 set on September 4. ETH fell to $2,474.76 (down 1.6%), and SOL reported $100.43 (down 2%).

Meanwhile, on Polymarket, the probability of passing the bill during the year was cut from 34% to 17%. The core variable was that the Democratic Party proposed an alternative plan after vetoing the Republican draft on Sunday, and the focus of controversy shifted from market structure to official coin holding ethics provisions.

The US Senate is scheduled to vote on whether to start a mandatory voting process at 2:15 p.m. ET. If the vote passes, the industry is expected to usher in the first set of clear regulatory rules; if it fails, the relevant legislative agenda is likely to be postponed until after the November midterm elections. The uncertainty of this legislative game has become a key macroeconomic factor suppressing current market valuations.

Crypto diverged significantly from traditional financial market trends on Tuesday. The 92 cryptocurrencies covered by the CoinDesk 100 index fell across the board, and the index fell 1.6%. Conversely, NASDAQ 100 futures rose 0.43%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.35%, and the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose 0.17%, boosted by a reversal of sell-off in the artificial intelligence sector. This is in stark contrast to the situation where only crypto assets rose 24 hours ago, highlighting that the current decline is mainly due to policy risks unique to the crypto sector rather than tightening macro-liquidity.