The CITIC Securities Research Report said that total financial data weakened in August, and new loans continued to be weak, but changes in the financing structure and reduction in quantitative targets reduced the signal significance of a weakening total volume. In terms of social finance, loans in the statement declined sharply, government bonds continued to decline at a high base, which dragged down the growth rate of social finance back to 7.2%, and corporate bonds and equity financing continued to increase. On the credit side, net repayment of short- and long-term loans for two consecutive months after the impulse at the end of June was more of a return after pre-investment; corporate medium- and long-term loans continued to decline, and both short-term loans and mortgages for residents increased negatively. On the monetary side, the M1 growth rate stabilized at a high base, and the scissor gap narrowed. The cumulative year-on-year decrease in residents' deposits, the net inflow of non-bank deposits continued but at a slower pace, and improvements in capital activation slowed but the direction was not reversed. We believe that the central bank clearly aims to gradually reduce quantitative intermediation during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, and that monetary policy may rely more on price regulation and structural tools; the growth rate of social finance in September was affected by a high base or continued to be pressured, and is expected to stabilize in the fourth quarter.

The CITIC Securities Research Report said that total financial data weakened in August, and new loans continued to be weak, but changes in the financing structure and reduction in quantitative targets reduced the signal significance of a weakening total volume. In terms of social finance, loans in the statement declined sharply, government bonds continued to decline at a high base, which dragged down the growth rate of social finance back to 7.2%, and corporate bonds and equity financing continued to increase. On the credit side, net repayment of short- and long-term loans for two consecutive months after the impulse at the end of June was more of a return after pre-investment; corporate medium- and long-term loans continued to decline, and both short-term loans and mortgages for residents increased negatively. On the monetary side, the M1 growth rate stabilized at a high base, and the scissor gap narrowed. The cumulative year-on-year decrease in residents' deposits, the net inflow of non-bank deposits continued but at a slower pace, and improvements in capital activation slowed but the direction was not reversed. We believe that the central bank clearly aims to gradually reduce quantitative intermediation during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period. Monetary policy may rely more on price regulation and structural tools; the growth rate of social finance in September was affected by a high base or continued to be pressured, and is expected to stabilize in the fourth quarter.