Northeast Securities: mSAP moves from selection to mainstream and officially starts a new cycle of high-end carrier boards

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Northeast Securities released a research report saying that high computing power resonates with iterative advanced packaging, and mSAP has become a rigid process barrier to mass production of high-end AI hardware. The bank believes that mSAP has both scarcity and economic barriers. Under the resonance of high-speed optical module penetration, AI hardware upgrades, and advanced packaging expansion, the growth rate of the global mSAP industry is expected to exceed 200% in 2027, and multi-track resonance will begin the industry explosion cycle. The industrial chain is transmitted by hierarchical barriers. The upstream pattern is highly oligopolistic, and midstream domestic substitution is being implemented at an accelerated pace.

The main views of Northeast Securities are as follows:

High computing power resonates with iterative advanced packaging, and mSAP has become a rigid process barrier for mass production of high-end AI hardware

1) The industry cycle has been restructured, and digital optical modules have entered a booming growth channel. AI pushes optical modules into a long-term boom channel. The global digital optical module market is expected to reach US$22.8 billion in 2026, and the CAGR will be 20% from 2025 to 2030, of which 800G/1.6T high-end products will be US$14.6 billion, accounting for 64%. 2) The demand structure is optimized, and the growth flexibility of the domestic industrial chain is significantly superior. The demand side is highly focused on the AI computing power scenario. In 2031, Ethernet optical module AI applications are expected to account for 80% of revenue; in 2025-2031, the CAGR for optical module procurement by Chinese cloud vendors is 29%, which is significantly higher than the US 18%, and the growth flexibility of the domestic industrial chain is better. 3) Advanced packaging iterative empowerment, mSAP process core requirement attributes established. Nvidia's CoBOP advanced packaging architecture will be implemented in 2026, and the penetration rate of high-end packaging is expected to exceed 30% in 2028, which can achieve 30%-50% package cost pressure reduction; the rigidity of this architecture requires an ultra-fine circuit process of 10/10 μm or less. mSAP is the core process adapted to large-scale mass production at this stage, and the replacement logic is clear.

mSAP has both scarcity and economic barriers, and multi-track resonance starts the industry's explosion cycle

mSAP's improved semi-addition method balances process accuracy, mass production yield, cost control and large-scale capability, and has become a rigid process standard for high-end computing power PCBs and advanced packaging. The process end can stably mass-produce 15/15 μm ultra-fine lines to achieve ± 5% high-precision impedance control. The utilization rate of copper foil is increased from 55% to 92%, and the pressure is reduced by 60% in wastewater treatment costs. It has both precision and economic benefits. Optical module rate iteration continues to increase product value. The value of 800G, 1.6T, and 3.2 tnpo mSAP veneers reached 100 yuan, 200-250 yuan, and 500 yuan respectively, driving the industry's profit center upward. Under the resonance of high-speed optical module penetration, AI hardware upgrades, and advanced packaging capacity expansion, the growth rate of the global mSAP industry is expected to exceed 200% in 2027. Among them, 1.6T will contribute 160-25 billion yuan in core increments, 800G will consolidate the basic board of 45-60 billion yuan, and 3.2TNPO will release 75-10 billion yuan of long-term flexibility, compounding the demand for high-end BT carrier boards and advanced packaging, and the industry's growth space continues to expand.

The mSAP industry chain is transmitted by stepwise barriers: the upstream pattern is highly oligopolized, and midstream domestic substitution is being implemented at an accelerated pace

mSAP Industry has built a five-layer closed loop system of “substrate - equipment chemicals - precision manufacturing - integrated packaging - terminal application”. Upstream materials show a strong and oligopoly pattern, with Mitsui Kinzoku's ultra-thin copper foil for mSAP having a global market share of over 95%, and monopolize the core supply chain; AI high-end CCL materials ushered in a sharp rise in volume and price, reaching 161% in 2026-2028, with shipments and average price CAGR of 77% and 57.3% respectively. It is expected that the penetration rate of M9 high-end CCL and high-end PCBs above 30 layers will increase to 58% and 47% respectively in 2028. Equipment-side LDI laser imaging, laser micropore, and precision electroplating form the core process barriers and directly determine mass production yield and accuracy. Leading domestic manufacturers on the midstream manufacturing side have completed process verification and production capacity layout. Pengding Holdings' 1.6T optical module PCBs have been delivered in batches, and domestic substitution continues to accelerate. On the technical side, the upper limit of the SLP carrier board process enabled by MSAP is only 15-20 μm. It cannot replace high-end IC carrier boards, and the industry's high-end scarcity barriers have been stable for a long time.

Risk warning: mSAP mass production yield falls short of expectations; technology route iteration replacement risk, etc.