Gulman predicts that the iPhone Duo: the first to fold or become an industry standard, the Apple (AAPL.US) folding machine may explode the 10-year switching cycle

The Zhitong Finance App learned that well-known financial journalist Mark Gurman said that Apple (AAPL.US)'s first folding iPhone has the potential to push the folding phone category, which is still experimental, to the industry standard. He said that the device, called the iPhone Duo, is one of Apple's most influential products, second only to iMac, iPod, iPad, and Apple Watch. Although folding screen phones have been around for many years, Gulman believes that Apple's ability to integrate software, materials, and durability gives them a better chance of winning recognition from mainstream consumers.

This device, which starts at $1999, is also seen as an important opening for Apple's new CEO John Turnus. Gurman believes that former CEO Tim Cook originally had the chance to launch the product before becoming executive chairman, but ultimately chose to let his successor stand in the spotlight.

Gulman believes that Apple did not choose to replace the iPhone with AR glasses or AI wearables, but rather reimagine the phone itself. AI assistants may handle messages, schedules, research, emails, and calls in the future, but consumers still need a powerful device with a large enough screen for reading, gaming, photography, and video conferencing. As a result, folding phones may become a bridge between smartphones and tablets, and their large screens can even replace laptops for some everyday tasks.

Apple seems to have found a reason to buy Duo right from the start: focusing on video, gaming, and photography, and customizing features for the folding form. The second screen can be used as a camera viewfinder or FaceTime monitor, and also supports extended widgets and an upright mode without a stand. Gurman compared this to Vision Pro: the latter was technologically advanced but expensive, and had limited consumer appeal, which became a commercial disappointment; the Apple Watch also experienced difficulties in positioning in the early days, and only then repositioned itself around health and fitness.

iPhone Duo is expected to lead folding models early next year

Currently, folding devices account for about 2% of global smartphone shipments, even though Samsung launched the Galaxy Fold seven years ago. Gurman predicts that folding phones will account for the majority of new phone sales within ten years. The iPhone Duo is expected to become the leading folding model early next year, and demand may cause serious shortages and high second-hand prices. Some buyers may even buy in the US and then resell to countries where Apple is more expensive.

However, this shift is expected to be more gradual than the transition from feature phones to smart phones. The main obstacle is the price: starting at $1999, which is higher than the combined price of two standard iPhones. Gurman expects that as component costs drop and Apple expands equipment leasing programs outside of the US, this barrier will weaken, and monthly payments may eventually be more important than the full price of the phone.

iPhone Duo is similar to the “new first-generation iPhone”

Apple probably won't stop at a folding phone. Gurman believes that a complete family of folding iPhones may appear in the future, including the larger-sized Duo Max, as well as the cheaper Duo SE or Duo mini. The Duo name is more expandable and flexible than the “iPhone Ultra” that the company had considered internally.

Apple may not be able to dominate the folding market for long. Gurman anticipated that the Duo's role could be similar to the original iPhone: establishing a product format that was later adopted and improved by competitors. For Apple and investors, the greater opportunity is not just selling high-end phones. If Gulman's predictions are accurate, Duo could begin a long replacement cycle, create a new tier of expensive iPhones, and revive the global smartphone market, where it has been difficult to give consumers a real reason to upgrade.