Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

U.S. stock futures are trending higher early Thursday as investors evaluate an impending wave of inflation data, crucial tech earnings, and volatile geopolitical rhetoric.

The Polymarket (CRYPTO: POL) crowd is leaning heavily bullish for the Sept. 10 trading session, with the “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 10?” contract reflecting a 70% chance of a higher open.

Key Drivers

Traders are balancing a busy economic calendar against escalating global tensions:

• Positive Index Futures: Equity futures point to a green open, with the Dow Jones up 0.34%, the S&P 500 up 0.19%, the Nasdaq 100 up 0.02%, and the Russell 2000 up 0.17%.
• Geopolitics & Energy: President Donald Trump suggested renaming the Strait of Hormuz to “Trump Strait” and promised a $5,000 “Trump dividend” if the GOP retains Congress. Trump also claimed the Iran war will end immediately after the midterm elections, though economist Peter Schiff warned that delayed resolutions will pressure oil and interest rates higher. Brent crude currently sits at $100.92 a barrel, while WTI crude trades at $95.96.
• Earnings & Eco Data: Thursday’s earnings docket includes major reports from Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL), Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE), and Macy’s Inc. (NYSE:M). Economically, markets await August’s PPI data and initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. ET, followed by wholesale trade and existing home sales at 10:00 a.m. ET.

The Bull Case and Market Outlook

As the market braces for a potential Federal Reserve rate hike next week, history suggests resilience. Jeff Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist for LPL Financial, notes that while stocks typically struggle for a few months following an initial rate hike, they generally regain their footing five months out.

Buchbinder highlighted that the average 12-month gain for the S&P 500 post-hike is 6.7%, and he likened today’s AI-driven environment to the 1997 tech boom. Ultimately, rate hikes rarely derail bull markets unless accompanied by rising recession risks, which remain low today.

How the Previous Bet Played Out

The Sept. 9 Polymarket contract resolved “Down,” recording $101,878 in total trading volume.

On Wednesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed lower. SPY fell 0.46% to $762.40, while QQQ fell 0.29% to $716.31. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), also ended 0.75% lower at $524.07.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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