Anchor Capital says Fed policy outlook, not fiscal fears, drives US Treasury yield cycle

• Anchor Capital flagged monetary policy as the main driver of US Treasury yields, citing repriced Fed expectations over fiscal-risk concerns.
• It said 2026’s 10-year yield moves tracked the market-implied long-run SOFR as markets swung from two cuts to nearly two hikes by end-August.
• The firm argued the selloff looks global, not US-specific, citing Treasuries outperforming several G7 peers while US CDS stayed range-bound.
• It attributed higher yields to a rising term premium as quantitative tightening unwinds QE-era distortions, with the US 10-year term premium near 0.8%.
• Anchor expects a weakening inflation impulse, sees the Fed falling short of priced tightening, forecasts lower Treasury yields and a softer US dollar.

Disclaimer: This news brief was created by Public Technologies (PUBT) using generative artificial intelligence. While PUBT strives to provide accurate and timely information, this AI-generated content is for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial, investment, or legal advice. Anchor Capital (Pty) Ltd published the original content used to generate this news brief on September 09, 2026, and is solely responsible for the information contained therein.