Vicat (ENXTPA:VCT) Expands VALèreCO Project, Is The 23% Undervaluation Case Convincing?
Vicat (ENXTPA:VCT) has drawn fresh investor attention after expanding its collaboration with Derichebourg Environnement through the VALèreCO joint venture, backing a €7 million Solid Recovered Fuel project in France’s Grand Est region.
At a latest share price of €65.5, Vicat has seen a 1-day share price return of 1.71% and a 90-day share price return of 10.64%. However, the year-to-date share price return is down 13.47%, while its 1-year total shareholder return of 13.37% and 3-year total shareholder return of 139.22% point to stronger longer term momentum that recent news such as the VALèreCO expansion appears to be feeding into.
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Bulls point to Vicat’s cement scale, energy transition projects and discounted price targets, while bears focus on recent share price softness and sector cyclicality. Which side does the current valuation evidence support next?
Most Popular Narrative: 23.5% Undervalued
Vicat's widely followed narrative points to a fair value of €85.6 per share compared with the latest close at €65.5, which frames the current debate around upside potential and execution risk.
The ramp-up of new production capacity in Senegal (Kiln 6) is expected to significantly lower production costs by eliminating expensive imports and retiring older, less efficient kilns. This is anticipated to improve net margins and free cash flow from 2H 2025 through 2027. Investments in alternative fuels and decarbonization projects (clinker substitution, alternative fuel rate improvements, activated clay) are beginning to yield results and are expected to offer margin expansion and resilience against rising regulatory pressures, positively affecting net margins over the medium term.
Analysts backing this Vicat narrative are considering a specific mix of steady revenue, stable margins and a richer future earnings multiple. Curious which combination of sales assumptions, profit levels and valuation uplift supports that €85.6 figure versus today’s price? The details behind that projection are where the story really becomes more detailed.
Result: Fair Value of €85.6 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, investors in Vicat still need to weigh weak demand in key mature markets and ongoing currency headwinds, which could challenge the upbeat earnings narrative.
Find out about the key risks to this Vicat narrative.
Next Steps
Given the mixed tone around Vicat in this article, it makes sense to check the underlying data yourself and decide how convincing the upside story feels. To see what investors are finding encouraging right now, take a look at the 6 key rewards.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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