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    SoftBank Group (TSE:9984) Could Be 37% Undervalued As SB Energy IPO Draws Focus

    Simply Wall St·09/03/2026 17:27:17
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    SoftBank Group (TSE:9984) is drawing fresh attention after majority owned SB Energy filed for a U.S. IPO, alongside a ¥1 trillion retail bond plan and sizeable commitments from Nvidia and OpenAI.

    Over the past year SoftBank Group has seen an 8.36% year to date share price return, while the 1 year total shareholder return is 29.31% and the 3 year total shareholder return is 219.30%. This suggests strong longer term momentum despite a recent 90 day share price decline of 32.66%, as investors weigh the SB Energy IPO plans, the potential 1X Technologies deal, and the ¥1 trillion bond issuance against the company’s growing AI and data center exposure.

    Spot opportunities across AI infrastructure and robotics by scanning our curated list of 55 AI infrastructure stocks. These companies could sit alongside SoftBank Group in a portfolio tilted toward this theme.

    For investors looking at SoftBank Group after a steep 90 day pullback but strong multi year returns, the question now is simple. Does it make more sense to buy into the AI and data center story today, or wait for a clearer valuation cushion in the next section?

    Most Popular Narrative: 37.1% Undervalued

    The most followed valuation work on SoftBank Group places fair value well above the last close of ¥5,001, which frames the current pullback as a potential discount against that narrative.

    The prevailing narrative centers on AI adoption as an unstoppable growth engine across industries, but high valuations now may ignore the risk that normalization of interest rates and tighter funding could compress multiples for high-growth, capital-intensive private tech ventures, leading to lower Vision Fund investment returns and potential write-downs, reducing net margins and earnings stability.

    Read the complete narrative.

    Want to see why this narrative still arrives at a higher fair value for SoftBank Group despite pressure on margins and earnings projections? The core assumptions around revenue growth, shrinking profitability, and a higher future earnings multiple tell a very specific story about how AI exposure could translate into long term value, even as near term earnings expectations step down.

    Result: Fair Value of ¥7,953.66 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, SoftBank Group’s AI heavy portfolio and high portfolio valuations could face pressure if funding costs rise or tech IPO appetite fades, which would challenge this undervaluation story.

    Find out about the key risks to this SoftBank Group narrative.

    Next Steps

    With sentiment on SoftBank Group split between its AI upside and portfolio risk, you may want to move quickly and test the assumptions yourself. You can review the balance of concerns and potential upside in the 4 key rewards and 4 important warning signs.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond SoftBank Group?

    If you like the AI and data center angle with SoftBank Group, do not stop there. Broader ideas can help round out your portfolio across sectors and styles.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.