Planet Labs: Can Defense Momentum Justify a Backlog That's Grown Faster Than Revenue?
Planet Labs has delivered a troubling pattern of earnings misses over the past year, with three of the last four quarters significantly undershooting analyst expectations. The most recent quarter (April 2026) saw the company report a $0.40 loss against a $0.13 consensus—a massive 207.69% miss. The prior quarter (January 2026) was even worse: a $0.48 loss versus $0.13 expected, missing by 269.23%. October 2025 brought a $0.19 loss against a $0.07 estimate, a 171.43% shortfall.
The sole bright spot came in July 2025, when Planet posted a $0.07 loss versus $0.08 expected, beating by 12.50%—but that modest outperformance now looks like an outlier rather than a trend reversal. The pattern suggests persistent operational challenges and potential conservatism issues in analyst modeling, with actual results consistently coming in far worse than Wall Street anticipated.
This track record creates a low bar for the upcoming release, but also raises the stakes: another significant miss could trigger serious questions about management's credibility on the path to profitability, while even an in-line result might be viewed skeptically given the recent history of disappointments.
| Quarter | EPS Estimate | EPS Actual | Surprise % | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2025 | $-0.08 | $-0.07 | +12.50% | Beat |
| Oct 2025 | $-0.07 | $-0.19 | -171.43% | Miss |
| Jan 2026 | $-0.13 | $-0.48 | -269.23% | Miss |
| Apr 2026 | $-0.13 | $-0.40 | -207.69% | Miss |
Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.
Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings
Planet Labs typically reports after market close, meaning Day 0 reflects anticipatory trading before results are known, while Day +1 captures the market's first full reaction to actual earnings.
| Earnings Date | Day 0 Move | Day 0 Range | Day +1 Move | Day +1 Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | +$0.40 (+0.93%) | $3.87 (8.96%) | -$11.31 (-25.98%) | $7.52 (17.28%) |
| 2025-09-08 | +$3.13 (+47.93%) | $2.42 (37.03%) | -$0.64 (-6.63%) | $1.04 (10.82%) |
| 2025-03-20 | -$0.08 (-1.85%) | $0.12 (2.78%) | -$0.45 (-10.61%) | $0.68 (16.15%) |
| 2024-12-09 | -$0.12 (-2.88%) | $0.55 (13.22%) | -$0.17 (-4.21%) | $0.49 (12.10%) |
| 2024-09-05 | +$0.00 (+0.00%) | $0.10 (3.88%) | -$0.70 (-28.23%) | $0.56 (22.58%) |
| 2024-06-06 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2024-03-28 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 2023-12-07 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Avg Abs Move | 10.72% | 13.17% | 15.13% | 15.79% |
Historical price action around Planet Labs earnings has been volatile and directionally unpredictable, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 10.72% and Day +1 move of 15.13%. The most dramatic reaction came after the June 2026 report, when the stock initially rose 0.93% on Day 0 but then collapsed 25.98% the following session—the largest single-day decline in the dataset. September 2025 saw the opposite pattern: a massive 47.93% surge on Day 0 followed by a more modest 6.63% pullback.
The data reveals no consistent directional bias—some reports trigger rallies, others spark selloffs—but the magnitude of moves is consistently large. Intraday ranges average 13.17% on Day 0 and 15.79% on Day +1, reflecting high uncertainty and aggressive repositioning by traders. Given this history, investors should prepare for significant volatility regardless of whether results beat or miss expectations.
Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Expiration Date | 09/04/26 (DTE 2) |
| Expected Move | $3.19 (15.95%) |
| Expected Range | $16.80 to $23.18 |
| Implied Volatility | 314.01% |
The options market is pricing a 15.95% expected move through the September 4 weekly expiration, slightly above the 15.13% average Day +1 move but below the combined two-day average volatility. This suggests options traders are anticipating elevated but not extreme post-earnings movement—consistent with recent history but perhaps underpricing the potential for another outsized reaction like the 25.98% June decline.
Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying
Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic stance on Planet Labs, with a consensus rating of 4.00 (Buy) on the five-point scale. The 13 analysts covering the stock include 7 Strong Buys, 1 Moderate Buy, 4 Holds, 0 Moderate Sells, and 1 Strong Sell—a distribution that skews bullish but includes meaningful skepticism.
The average price target of $41.27 implies substantial 106% upside from the current $19.99 price, with estimates ranging from a low of $25.00 to a high of $53.00. This wide target range reflects divergent views on the company's ability to execute its profitability roadmap and capitalize on its growing defense backlog.
Sentiment has remained unchanged over the past month, with rating counts and the average recommendation holding steady at 4.00. This stability suggests analysts are in wait-and-see mode ahead of earnings, neither upgrading aggressively on optimism nor downgrading on concern. The lack of recent revisions indicates the Street is reserving judgment until management provides updated guidance and demonstrates tangible progress on the path to profitability.
Part 4: Technical Picture
The Barchart Technical Opinion registers an 88% Sell signal, unchanged from last week but significantly deteriorated from the 56% Sell reading one month ago. This intensifying bearish signal reflects mounting technical pressure as the stock has broken down through multiple support levels heading into the earnings release.
Timeframe Analysis:
- Short-term (100% Sell): Maximum bearish signal indicates severe near-term downside momentum
- Medium-term (100% Sell): Equally negative intermediate-term reading confirms the breakdown is not just a short-term fluctuation
- Long-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal suggests the longer-term trend has shifted neutral-to-bearish but retains some structural support
Trend Characteristics: Average strength and average direction indicate the stock is in a steady, moderate-intensity downtrend rather than a capitulation selloff—a grinding deterioration that could continue absent a strong earnings catalyst.
Planet Labs is trading below all major moving averages, a uniformly bearish configuration. The current $19.99 price sits beneath the 5-day ($20.05), 10-day ($20.90), 20-day ($22.34), 50-day ($23.89), 100-day ($31.00), and 200-day ($26.91) moving averages. The 100-day average at $31.00 represents a particularly significant breakdown level—the stock has fallen 35.5% from that threshold, indicating a failed rally attempt and loss of intermediate-term support.
| Period | Value | Period | Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Day MA | $20.05 | 50-Day MA | $23.89 |
| 10-Day MA | $20.90 | 100-Day MA | $31.00 |
| 20-Day MA | $22.34 | 200-Day MA | $26.91 |
The technical setup heading into earnings is decidedly unfavorable, with the stock in a confirmed downtrend across all timeframes and no nearby support levels to cushion further weakness. The 200-day moving average at $26.91 represents the nearest meaningful resistance, now 34.6% above the current price. Given this bearish configuration, Planet Labs would likely need a significant earnings beat and strong forward guidance to reverse the technical damage—an in-line or disappointing result could accelerate the existing downtrend toward the $16.80 lower bound of the options expected move range.