Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

U.S. stock futures were mixed early Wednesday as Wall Street awaits Nvidia Corp.‘s (NASDAQ:NVDA) marquee earnings report, key PCE inflation data, and further developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

The Polymarket (CRYPTO: POL) crowd is evenly split for the Aug. 26 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 26?” contract currently reflects a 50% chance of a higher open.

Why That Number Matters

Traders are navigating a crucial day of corporate earnings and economic releases against a shifting geopolitical environment:

• Slightly Lower Index Futures: Equity futures were mixed as Dow futures rose 0.04%, while both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures declined by 0.03% and Russell 2000 slipped by 0.01%.
• Hormuz Corridor Talks & Oil Decline: Iran and Oman restarted discussions regarding a joint temporary navigational corridor through the Strait of Hormuz and agreed to clear mines. President Donald Trump stated all mines in international waters had been cleared, though risks remain after an oil tanker was struck near Oman. Crude prices tumbled, with Brent crude futures falling to $85.27 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropping to $80.31 a barrel.
• Diplomatic Personnel Return: According to Reuters, the U.S. has begun returning personnel to several Middle East diplomatic posts—including Lebanon, Israel, and Saudi Arabia—suggesting Washington sees a reduced risk of immediate conflict escalation.
• PCE Inflation & Blockbuster Earnings: Key economic data releases include July’s PCE price index, core PCE, durable goods orders, and the second-quarter GDP estimates by 8:30 a.m. ET. Meanwhile, Wednesday’s earnings docket is headlined by AI giant Nvidia, alongside CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD), Salesforce Inc. (NYSE:CRM), and HP Inc. (NYSE:HPQ), among others.

The Bull Case and Market Outlook

Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at the Schwab Center for Financial Research, noted that the “debasement trade” has returned following the U.S. Treasury Department’s unexpected bond-market intervention to contain yields.

Sonders noted that this intervention has driven gold and crypto higher as investors evaluate fiscal policy concerns and pressure on the dollar. Meanwhile, refinery capacity constraints continue to keep diesel and gasoline prices elevated even as crude prices decline.

How the Previous Bet Played Out

The Aug. 25 Polymarket contract resolved “Up.” The contract recorded $28,397 in total trading volume.

On Tuesday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100, respectively, closed higher. The SPY was up 0.32% to $765.91, while the QQQ advanced by 0.62% to $710.72. Meanwhile, the Dow tracker, State Street SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (NYSE:DIA), ended 0.30% higher at $535.24.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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