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    TUI (XTRA:TUI1) Could Be 32% Undervalued After Weaker 2026 Results

    Simply Wall St·08/25/2026 00:32:05
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    Earnings results put TUI stock back in focus

    TUI (XTRA:TUI1) is back on investors’ radar after reporting third quarter and nine month 2026 results, with both sales and profitability lower than the same periods a year earlier.

    The update provides new figures for assessing how the tourism group’s share price performance aligns with its recent financial results and ongoing turnaround efforts.

    See our latest analysis for TUI.

    TUI’s 1 day share price return of 1.82% and 5.07% return over 90 days suggest investors are watching the latest earnings closely, while the year to date share price return is down 22.28% and the 1 year total shareholder return is down 21.60%, pointing to pressure on longer term sentiment despite a 3 year total shareholder return that is positive.

    If the latest move in TUI has you reassessing your watchlist, this could be a good moment to broaden your search and check out 113 top founder-led companies

    The recent bounce in TUI’s share price sits alongside a wide discount to both analyst targets and one estimate of fair value. Is the market sensibly cautious after weaker earnings, or too pessimistic given that gap?

    Most Popular Narrative: 31.9% Undervalued

    The most followed narrative for TUI points to a fair value of €10.35 per share, compared with the last close at €7.05, which frames a sizeable gap that investors are now weighing against weaker guidance and recent earnings pressure.

    TUI is leveraging its vertical integration across airlines, hotels, cruises, and ground experiences, resulting in higher occupancy rates, increased daily rates, full cruise ship utilization, and the cross-selling of high-margin, differentiated products. This integrated model positions TUI to drive earnings and margin improvements, especially as more of its portfolio shifts to exclusive and unique offerings.

    Read the complete narrative.

    If you want to understand why this narrative still supports an uplift from today’s share price, you need to see the precise mix of revenue growth assumptions, margin improvement targets and future valuation multiple that sit behind that €10.35 figure.

    Result: Fair Value of €10.35 (UNDERVALUED)

    Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

    However, TUI still faces pressure from competition and online travel agents, along with geopolitical and weather related disruptions that could undermine this undervalued narrative.

    Find out about the key risks to this TUI narrative.

    Next Steps

    If the balance of risks and rewards for TUI still feels unclear, act while sentiment is split and test the numbers yourself using 3 key rewards.

    Looking for more investment ideas beyond TUI?

    Do not stop your research with TUI. Use the Simply Wall St screener to quickly surface fresh ideas that match the kind of portfolio you want to build.

    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.