Billionaire Investor's Biggest Bet Isn't Amazon or Alphabet — It's Warner Bros. Discovery

Dan Loeb‘s Third Point made Warner Bros. Discovery (NASDAQ:WBD) its single largest holding in the second quarter, buying 20 million shares, valued at about $533 million, as of June 30.

The stake accounted for 11.4% of the firm’s $4.68 billion in disclosed U.S. equity holdings — ahead of both Alphabet and Amazon.

Recent News:

• This month, the company reported second-quarter results, with earnings topping Wall Street expectations despite a revenue miss as the loss of NBA media rights, weaker advertising demand and a softer film slate weighed on its television networks and studio businesses.
• The media company reported second-quarter revenue of $8.72 billion, down 12% year over year on a constant-currency basis and below the analyst consensus estimate of $9.29 billion. Earnings came in at 6 cents per share, beating expectations for a loss of 13 cents per share.
• During the earnings call, an analyst asked whether Warner Bros was seeing measurable benefits from the bundle, which combines Max, Disney+ and Hulu under a discounted subscription. The company said customers who subscribe through the bundled offering are proving to be more engaged and are remaining subscribers for longer periods compared with those on standalone services.

Analyst Outlook

• Seaport Global: Downgraded to Neutral (July 27)
• Seaport Global: Upgraded to Buy (Target $31.00) (June 29)
• UBS: Neutral (Raises Target to $31.00) (May 7)

Technical Analysis

WBD is still pressing toward the top of its 52-week range, with price at $28.73 sitting just below the $30.00 high, which keeps the chart in "breakout watch" mode. The stock is also extended to the upside versus its trend gauges—about 6% above the 20-day SMA ($27.09) and roughly 6%-7% above the 50-, 100-, and 200-day SMAs clustered near $26.77-$27.03.

Momentum is the bigger near-term question: RSI is at 70.74, which signals the move is getting stretched and can be prone to pullbacks or sideways digestion even if the broader trend stays intact. That said, the 20-day SMA is above the 50-day SMA (bullish near-term structure), while the "death cross" from August (50-day below the 200-day) is a reminder that the longer-term trend only recently repaired and can still be choppy.

• Key Resistance: $29.50 — a nearby ceiling just under the $30.00 52-week high where rallies can stall
• Key Support: $25.50 — a prior demand area and a level that sits below the main moving-average cluster, making it a key "trend still intact?" line

Sector Performance

Warner Bros. sits in the Communication Services sector, tracked by the Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLC), which ranks 2 of 11 S&P sectors on Monday.

Key Performance Indicators:

• Sector Rank: 2 of 11 sectors (Leading)
• Daily Move: +1.10%
• 1-Month Trend: +4.61% (Outperforming)
• 90-Day Trend: -2.53% (Bearish)
• Stock vs Sector: Underperforming by 0.45 percentage points
• Top Performing Sectors Monday: Consumer Staples (XLP), Communication Services (XLC), Financials (XLF) (These are the top 3 performing sectors today, not peers of Warner Bros.)

Sector leadership on Monday is concentrated in defensive and rate-sensitive groups, with Consumer Staples and Communication Services near the top alongside Financials. Meanwhile, Technology, Energy, and Industrials are lagging, pointing to a more cautious rotation away from cyclicals and growth.

Peer Comparison

This peer comparison is based on a curated set of stocks selected for this analysis: Live Nation Entertainment Inc. (LYV), Spotify Technology S.A. (SPOT), Liberty Media Corporation Series C Liberty Formula One (FWONK), Liberty Media Corporation Series A Liberty Formula One (FWONA), and Roku, Inc. (ROKU). Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. gained 138.58% over the past year, versus a 13.53% average for the peer group. That leaves Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. ahead of the peer-group average by 125.05 percentage points, and it beat all five peers individually.

Top ETF Exposure

• Vanguard Morningstar Mid-Cap Value ETF (NYSE:VOE): 1.10% Weight
• iShares Russell Mid-cap Value ETF (NYSE:IWS): 0.61% Weight
• Vanguard Communication Services ETF (NYSE:VOX): 2.84% Weight

Significance: Because WBD carries meaningful weight in these funds, any significant inflows or outflows for these ETFs will likely force automatic buying or selling of the stock.

WBD Stock Price Activity: Warner Bros. Discovery shares were up 0.65% at $28.73 at the time of publication on Monday, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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