Keymed Biosciences Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models
Investors in Keymed Biosciences Inc. (HKG:2162) had a good week, as its shares rose 2.8% to close at HK$80.30 following the release of its interim results. Revenues of CN¥617m were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at CN¥4.25, missing estimates by 7.6%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Keymed Biosciences from eleven analysts is for revenues of CN¥1.13b in 2026. If met, it would imply a huge 35% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 33% to CN¥3.49. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥2.26b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥2.59 in 2026. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the latest results, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also granting a very substantial lift in to the earnings per share numbers.
Check out our latest analysis for Keymed Biosciences
There's been no real change to the average price target of HK$100, with the lower revenue and higher earnings forecasts not expected to meaningfully impact the company's valuation over a longer timeframe. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Keymed Biosciences analyst has a price target of HK$110 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$90.15. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Keymed Biosciences' past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Keymed Biosciences' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 82% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 45% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 23% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Keymed Biosciences to grow faster than the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Keymed Biosciences following these results. They also downgraded Keymed Biosciences' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Keymed Biosciences analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You still need to take note of risks, for example - Keymed Biosciences has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.