Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) Shares Ride Gold Margins As Cash Stays Tight

Investors came into this result with Northern Star Resources trading near A$23.97 and carrying a premium P/E of 20.5x to the broader Australian metals and mining sector. The stock had already banked a strong 90 day run, so expectations were high.

The earnings print delivered the sort of numbers that keep a premium story alive. Underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation reached A$4.3b with margins around 56%, while net profit margin across the trailing twelve months sat near 21.8%. The headline is simple: Northern Star is leaning on fat gold margins rather than headline volume to justify that multiple, at least for now.

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FY 2026 Earnings Summary

• Revenue (FY 2026 vs FY 2025 PCP, Half 2): A$4,208.8m vs A$3,546.0m (change reflects higher reported revenue in FY 2026 Half 2)
• Net Income (Excl. Extra Items, FY 2026 vs FY 2025 PCP, Half 2): A$949.9m vs A$833.3m (change reflects higher reported net income in FY 2026 Half 2)
• Basic EPS (FY 2026 vs FY 2025 PCP, Half 2): A$0.6650 per share vs A$0.6773 per share (slight decline in reported EPS in FY 2026 Half 2)
• Net Profit Margin (Trailing Twelve Months vs Prior Year): 21.8% vs 20.9% (reported margin higher on a trailing twelve month basis)

Prefer clean charts over scrolling through another wall of earnings figures and margin tables? View Northern Star Resources' full financial picture, with an at a glance summary of recent earnings and profitability metrics, in our company report for Northern Star Resources.

Northern Star’s Growth Story Meets Execution Checkpoints

The bullish story around Northern Star Resources is that KCGM expansion and Hemi turn a strong gold producer into a higher cash flow engine. FY26 results show some key milestones hit. Underlying EBITDA reached A$4.3b with a margin near 56%, and cash earnings were A$2.9b while the company funded peak KCGM spend and still reported underlying free cash flow of A$190m. That supports the view that the existing asset base can carry heavy growth capex without overextending the balance sheet.

On growth proof points, KCGM is through construction on the A$1.6b mill expansion and now moves into ramp up, with FY27 KCGM production guided at 550 to 650 koz. Reserve and resource upgrades to 28.4 Moz reserves and 88.9 Moz resources give the Hemi acquisition and broader exploration story physical backing rather than just concept upside.

Reveal where the surface looks calm but the models start to diverge by checking when the street expects Northern Star Resources to hit its next real inflection point, and access the multi year revenue and earnings analyst estimates for Northern Star Resources.

Northern Star Bears Still Focused On Execution Gaps

The bearish view on Northern Star Resources is that rising costs, heavy capex and governance noise will dilute returns just as growth projects peak. FY26 results partly speak to that concern. Underlying free cash flow of A$190m against multi billion dollar EBITDA and A$2.6 to 2.9b of planned FY27 capital investment shows how thin surplus cash currently is while KCGM and Hemi soak up funding. Group AISC guidance of A$3,050 to 3,450/oz and explicit cost inflation assumptions keep the risk of margin compression on the table if grades or recoveries underperform.

Bears also worry that governance friction and activist pressure signal deeper execution issues. Elliott’s push for a board overhaul, the rejected director slate and scrutiny of an A$18m plus incoming CEO package underline that this concern has not been resolved by the result. The print confirms operational progress but does not close these execution and governance debates.

With multi billion dollar EBITDA, heavy KCGM and Hemi capex, and only A$190m of underlying free cash flow, pressure on Northern Star Resources’ cash engine is real. Verify the funding runway in our financial health analysis of Northern Star Resources stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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