Mirvac (ASX:MGR) Shares Reflect Repair Progress But Demand Doubts Linger

Mirvac Group shares closed at A$1.85 today after a steady week in which the stock edged higher, yet the valuation still reflects caution rather than enthusiasm. The tension for investors is simple. The earnings headline is about profit quality and scale catching up with the share price discount. Full year operating profit reached A$508 million and the trailing P/E multiple sits well below both global and local real estate peers. The market is treating Mirvac like a problem child while the latest numbers look more like a repair story.

Love Mirvac Group’s low P/E and profit scale, but still uneasy about whether the repair story will stick? Check out our list of solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks (21 results) to compare Mirvac against companies where earnings quality and balance sheet strength already line up.

FY 2026 Earnings Summary

• Revenue (FY 2026 vs FY 2025 Half 2 annualised): A$2,977 million vs. A$2,670 million (higher on a trailing twelve month basis).
• Net Income (Excl. Extra Items, FY 2026 vs FY 2025 Half 2 annualised): A$677 million vs. A$68 million (very large year on year improvement, around 10x).
• Basic EPS (Earnings Per Share, FY 2026 vs FY 2025 Half 2 annualised): A$0.172 vs. A$0.017237 (very large year on year improvement, around 10x).
• Net Profit Margin (FY 2026 vs prior year): 22.7% vs. 2.5% (margin materially higher year on year).

Tired of scrolling through walls of Mirvac Group figures and footnotes? See the company’s full financial picture with a clear view of its valuation in our company report for Mirvac Group.

Mirvac bullish story: repair, resilience and returns

Bulls argue Mirvac is a repaired, resilient developer with multiple earnings engines now aligned. The FY26 print gives that view some hard markers. Operating profit of A$508 million with group EBIT up 12% and development EBIT above 50% growth shows the development arm again pulling its weight. Residential gross margins are above target and unconditional exchanges are 15% higher, which supports claims that the presales pipeline is converting rather than stalling. Around A$1.5b of residential presales covers 63% of the FY27 settlement target at the midpoint, which is a clear de-risk to near term earnings. Gearing at 24.1% plus A$1.6b of liquidity and unchanged A3/A credit ratings back the idea of a stronger balance sheet. High portfolio occupancy, positive like-for-like NOI growth and a A$200 million buyback signal management believes the repair phase is largely complete.

Mirvac bear case: macro, mix and execution risks

The bear story is that Mirvac is still highly exposed to the property cycle and project execution. FY26 results do not remove that risk. Management acknowledges softer buyer sentiment in Q4 and higher funding costs, with the weighted average cost of debt expected at about 5.7% in FY27 and capitalised interest a small earnings headwind. Residential guidance of 2,800 to 3,100 settlements still relies on conditional presales and assumes stable demand. Margin mix is also shifting, since FY27 will have a heavier apartment skew after a year supported by higher margin masterplanned communities. On the commercial side, 7 Spencer Street is behind leasing expectations and has already taken a valuation write-down, which shows that not every premium office asset is an easy fill. Look-through gearing is guided toward the top of the target range as the development pipeline and build-to-rent rollout progress.

Compare Mirvac Group’s repair story with what the street is actually pricing in. See the consensus price target analysis for Mirvac Group to check how analyst targets stack up against the current A$1.85 share price.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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