Stock Market: Will S&P 500 Open Up or Down Today?

U.S. stock futures are showing modest gains heading into Thursday morning as Wall Street digests cooling inflation data against the backdrop of a prolonged geopolitical impasse in the Middle East.

The Polymarket (CRYPTO: POL) crowd is leaning bullish for the Aug. 13 trading session. The “S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 13?” contract currently reflects a 61% chance of a higher open.

Why That Number Matters

Traders are balancing optimistic inflation momentum against lingering geopolitical frictions:

• Mixed Index Futures: Equity futures are pointing to a slightly positive open. S&P 500 futures were up 0.08%, Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.13%, and Russell 2000 futures ticked up 0.14%. Dow Jones futures were down slightly by 0.01%.
• Middle East Impasse: A senior Iranian source stated there has been “absolutely no progress” on reviving the interim peace deal with the U.S., according to Reuters. While President Donald Trump claimed the U.S. has “total control” over the Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf Strait Authority stated the waterway remains blocked until Iran’s conditions are met. Brent crude futures were trading at around $88 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude traded around $83 a barrel.
• Inflation Checkup: Wednesday’s CPI data came in exactly on forecast, with core CPI year-over-year at +2.5%. Today, investors will review July’s PPI and ex-food & energy PPI data, set to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET.

The Bull Case and Market Outlook

The lack of inflation pressure from higher energy prices is fueling optimism that further inflation drops are coming, according to market commentator Louis Navellier, who noted this trend helped push interest rates lower. Following the CPI data, Navellier highlighted that U.S. 2-year yields dropped 3 basis points to 4.18%, and the 10-year yield dropped 2 basis points to 4.66%.

The AI theme also remains robust, with strong data center demand lifting stocks like CoreWeave Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWV), Super Micro Computer Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI), and Lumentum Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:LITE). Investors are now bracing for Thursday’s earnings reports, with Applied Materials Inc. (NASDAQ:AMAT), Brookfield Corporation (NYSE:BN), and JD.com Inc. (NASDAQ:JD) scheduled to report.

How the Previous Bet Played Out: The Aug. 12 Polymarket contract resolved “Up”. The contract recorded $43,784 in total trading volume.

Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.

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