Genmab A/S Just Beat EPS By 29%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
It's been a good week for Genmab A/S (CPH:GMAB) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest interim results, and the shares gained 7.6% to kr.1,999. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of US$2.0b were what the analysts expected, Genmab surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of US$5.68 per share, an impressive 29% above what was forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Genmab from 19 analysts is for revenues of US$4.48b in 2026. If met, it would imply a solid 8.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to dip 8.0% to US$12.14 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$4.37b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$11.83 in 2026. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.
View our latest analysis for Genmab
Despite these upgrades,the analysts have not made any major changes to their price target of kr.2,407, suggesting that the higher estimates are not likely to have a long term impact on what the stock is worth. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Genmab, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at kr.2,972 and the most bearish at kr.1,400 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Genmab's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 17% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 24% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 15% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Genmab's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Genmab following these results. There was also an upgrade to revenue estimates, although as we saw earlier, forecast growth is only expected to be about the same as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Genmab analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for Genmab (1 can't be ignored!) that we have uncovered.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.