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    Centerra Gold (TSX:CG) Is Up 22.9% After Raising 2026 Gold Guidance And Boosting Shareholder Returns – Has The Bull Case Changed?

    Simply Wall St·08/08/2026 14:26:37
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    • Centerra Gold Inc. has reported its second-quarter 2026 results, with sales of US$442.71 million and net income of US$72.12 million, alongside updated production figures and confirmation of a quarterly C$0.07 dividend per share.
    • Beyond higher revenue and earnings, the combination of increased 2026 gold production guidance, ongoing copper output, dividends, and buybacks underlines a multi-pronged approach to rewarding shareholders and supporting future operations.
    • With Centerra lifting its 2026 gold production guidance, we’ll now examine how this update reshapes the company’s broader investment narrative.

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    Centerra Gold Investment Narrative Recap

    To own Centerra Gold today, you need to believe it can turn its core producing mines and pipeline projects into consistent cash generation, despite cost and geological headwinds. In the near term, the key catalyst is delivery against the higher 2026 gold guidance, while the biggest risk remains cost pressure and ore grade uncertainty at Mount Milligan. The latest quarter’s higher sales and earnings support the guidance increase, but do not materially change those underlying risks.

    The most relevant update here is the lift in 2026 consolidated gold production guidance to 260,000 to 290,000 ounces, driven by higher expected output at Öksüt. This guidance sits alongside confirmed 2026 copper guidance of 50 to 60 million pounds and ongoing buybacks, so the production outlook now anchors both the earnings story and the capital returns narrative that shorter term investors are watching most closely.

    Yet beneath the higher production targets, investors should still be aware of how rising costs at Öksüt and Mount Milligan could...

    Read the full narrative on Centerra Gold (it's free!)

    Centerra Gold's narrative projects $1.6 billion revenue and $106.3 million earnings by 2028.

    Uncover how Centerra Gold's forecasts yield a CA$32.42 fair value, a 9% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    TSX:CG 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    TSX:CG 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Some of the lowest ranked analysts painted a much harsher picture, assuming earnings could fall to about US$464.8 million by 2029 even as revenue climbed toward roughly US$2.2 billion, which contrasts sharply with the stronger recent quarter and raises questions about how longer term cost and regulatory pressures might reshape both that cautious view and the more optimistic guidance driven story you are seeing today.

    Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Centerra Gold - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.