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To own Americold, you have to believe that demand for temperature-controlled logistics and the company’s large global network can justify its heavy investment and high leverage. The latest quarter’s US$342.81 million loss, driven mostly by a US$309.57 million asset impairment, does not appear to signal a sudden collapse in revenue, but it does sharpen the near term risk that asset values and returns on invested capital may be lower than previously assumed.
The impairment comes shortly after Americold’s joint venture announcement with EQT’s Active Core Infrastructure fund, where Americold will contribute 12 North American facilities and expects about US$1.1 billion in proceeds to pay down debt. That transaction, if completed as outlined, goes directly to the key near term catalyst of reducing balance sheet risk and funding growth, while also highlighting the tension between asset valuations, leverage, and long term earnings power.
Yet beneath the appeal of debt reduction and new partnerships, investors still need to consider the risk that high capital intensity and leverage could...
Read the full narrative on Americold Realty Trust (it's free!)
Americold Realty Trust's narrative projects $2.8 billion revenue and $1.0 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 2.5% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $1.1 billion from -$111.7 million today.
Uncover how Americold Realty Trust's forecasts yield a $16.26 fair value, a 13% upside to its current price.
The most optimistic analysts once expected Americold’s revenue to reach about US$3.0 billion and earnings to turn positive by 2029, but after a US$309.57 million impairment and a US$342.81 million quarterly loss, you can see how differently people can view the same stock and why those bullish assumptions might now face more questions.
Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Americold Realty Trust - why the stock might be worth as much as 43% more than the current price!
Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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