Shionogi & Co., Ltd. Beat Analyst Estimates: See What The Consensus Is Forecasting For This Year
Shionogi & Co., Ltd. (TSE:4507) just released its first-quarter report and things are looking bullish. The company beat forecasts, with revenue of JP¥163b, some 2.9% above estimates, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) coming in at JP¥115, 145% ahead of expectations. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Shionogi from twelve analysts is for revenues of JP¥699.8b in 2027. If met, it would imply a sizeable 24% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to fall 19% to JP¥251 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥700.0b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥250 in 2027. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
See our latest analysis for Shionogi
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥3,404, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Shionogi at JP¥4,000 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,900. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Shionogi's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Shionogi's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 34% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2027 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 9.4% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Shionogi is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,404, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Shionogi going out to 2029, and you can see them free on our platform here..
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Shionogi (of which 1 is a bit concerning!) you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.