Finnair Oyj (HLSE:FIA1S) Could Be 41% Overvalued As Profit Returns And Outlook Improves
Finnair Oyj (HLSE:FIA1S) stock is in focus after the airline reported second quarter 2026 results, which showed a return to profitability, stronger sales and a higher full year revenue outlook.
See our latest analysis for Finnair Oyj.
The latest earnings and raised revenue outlook come after a strong share price run, with a 90 day share price return of 31.65% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 75.22%. The 49.54% year to date share price return suggests momentum has been building despite a 6.71% share price decline over the past month. Recent board and CFO changes announced on 24 July 2026 add another factor for investors to monitor around Finnair Oyj.
If Finnair Oyj’s rebound has you reassessing opportunities in transport and infrastructure, it could be a useful moment to see what else is gaining attention across 35 power grid technology and infrastructure stocks
After Finnair Oyj’s sharp rebound and guidance upgrade, the key question is whether to lock in exposure now or wait for a cooler entry point. How does today’s valuation compare with the recent turnaround story?
Most Popular Narrative: 41% Overvalued
At a last close of €4.84 compared with a narrative fair value of €3.43, Finnair Oyj is framed as richly priced based on that narrative, which leans on detailed revenue and margin assumptions under an 11.11% discount rate.
Finnair plans to increase its total capacity in terms of Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) by approximately 10% in 2025, which is expected to drive revenue growth as more capacity can accommodate increased passenger demand. The renewal of the narrow-body fleet is in progress, and investing in more fuel-efficient aircraft could reduce operating costs and improve net margins over time.
Want to see what sits behind that capacity push and fleet refresh story? The narrative leans on specific revenue growth, margin progress and a future earnings multiple. Curious how those moving parts combine into a fair value that differs from today’s price.
Result: Fair Value of €3.43 (OVERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, there is still clear downside risk if industrial disputes drag on, or if weaker ticket fares and higher operating costs compress Finnair Oyj’s margins again.
Find out about the key risks to this Finnair Oyj narrative.
Another view on Finnair Oyj: earnings multiple vs fair value
The first narrative flags Finnair Oyj as 41% overvalued at €4.84 compared with a fair value of €3.43. Yet the current P/E near 9.3x looks modest against both Finnish market levels of 18.4x and a peer average of 12.8x, and it is also below a fair ratio of 11.4x. This raises the question of whether the market is still pricing in too much risk, or whether a relative value opportunity may be taking shape.
For a closer look at what this gap might mean in practice, including how current pricing compares with the fair ratio investors sometimes watch, See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
With Finnair Oyj sitting between mixed valuation signals and a fresh turnaround story, you may want to move quickly and weigh the trade off between its risks and rewards yourself. To pressure test that view from every angle, start with the full breakdown of 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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