Antero Midstream (AM) On Record EBITDA And Expansion Plans Looks Modestly Undervalued
Antero Midstream (AM) is back in focus after reporting second quarter 2026 results that combined record adjusted EBITDA and higher gathering volumes with a small decline in net income compared with last year.
See our latest analysis for Antero Midstream.
The latest results land at a time when Antero Midstream’s share price has climbed 22.46% year to date, even though the 7 day and 30 day share price returns are slightly negative. That sits alongside a 24.05% 1 year total shareholder return and a very large 5 year total shareholder return. Together, these figures suggest recent consolidation rather than a sudden shift in longer term sentiment following the earnings update and expansion plans.
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After a strong run in Antero Midstream, set against softer recent trading and mixed headline earnings, the key question now is whether the current price still leaves enough upside to compensate for the risks.
Most Popular Narrative: 8.5% Undervalued
The most followed narrative currently pegs Antero Midstream’s fair value at $24 per share, compared with the last close at $21.97. This frames today’s valuation debate around a moderate discount tied to future earnings and cash flow expectations.
Continued success in efficiency projects, such as the compressor reuse program, is generating material cost savings ($135 million cumulative through 2030) and lowering ongoing capital intensity, which could expand net margins and enhance future free cash flow.
Want to understand why this narrative still sees upside in Antero Midstream at around $22? It leans heavily on steady revenue expansion, rising margins and a richer future earnings multiple than the wider oil and gas group. Curious which specific growth and profitability assumptions have the biggest impact on that $24 fair value.
Result: Fair Value of $24 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, the Antero Midstream narrative can quickly change if concentration risk around Antero Resources or tighter Appalachian regulation begins to pressure volumes and margins.
Find out about the key risks to this Antero Midstream narrative.
Another View: What Antero Midstream’s P/E Is Telling You
The first narrative suggests Antero Midstream looks about 8.5% undervalued at $21.97 versus a $24 fair value. Yet the P/E ratio of 26.1x sits well above both the US Oil and Gas industry at 14x and the peer average at 19.4x, and above a fair ratio of 21.5x. That points to a richer pricing that could limit upside if expectations cool. The key question is how much of that premium you are comfortable paying.
See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.
Next Steps
If the mixed messages around Antero Midstream leave you unsure, this is the time to review the details yourself and form a clear stance. A helpful next step is to weigh the 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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