Results: Mondi plc Beat Earnings Expectations And Analysts Now Have New Forecasts
Shareholders will be ecstatic, with their stake up 22% over the past week following Mondi plc's (LON:MNDI) latest half-year results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of €4.0b were what the analysts expected, Mondi surprised by delivering a (statutory) profit of €0.12 per share, an impressive 53% above what was forecast. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Mondi after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Mondi's 13 analysts is for revenues of €7.96b in 2026. This reflects a reasonable 3.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory losses are forecast to balloon 44% to €0.33 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €7.90b and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.32 in 2026. So despite reconfirming their revenue estimates, the analysts are now forecasting a loss instead of a profit, which looks like a definite drop in sentiment following the latest results.
See our latest analysis for Mondi
As a result, there was no major change to the consensus price target of UK£8.11, with the analysts implicitly confirming that the business looks to be performing in line with expectations, despite higher forecast losses. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Mondi at UK£10.84 per share, while the most bearish prices it at UK£6.39. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The analysts are definitely expecting Mondi's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 6.2% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 0.4% per annum over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 2.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Mondi is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting Mondi to become unprofitable next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at UK£8.11, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Mondi going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Mondi is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
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