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    How Record Margins and Backlog at First Solar (FSLR) Have Changed Its Investment Story

    Simply Wall St·08/02/2026 06:14:58
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    • In the past week, First Solar reported second-quarter 2026 results showing sales of US$1,056.19 million and net income of US$422.57 million, with earnings per share rising year over year despite slightly lower sales.
    • The company also underscored record gross margins, a contracted backlog of 45.1 gigawatts extending through 2030, and maintained full-year guidance supported by expanding U.S. manufacturing and technology investment.
    • With this backdrop of stronger margins and a sizable long-term backlog, we'll now examine how the latest results influence First Solar's investment narrative.

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    First Solar Investment Narrative Recap

    To own First Solar, you have to believe its U.S. focused thin film technology, policy tailwinds, and expanding manufacturing base can offset intense global competition and policy uncertainty. The latest results, with higher earnings and record margins despite slightly softer sales, generally support that view in the near term, while the biggest current swing factor remains trade and tariff outcomes rather than quarterly volume shifts.

    The most relevant update here is First Solar’s reaffirmed 2026 outlook alongside Q2 results, including expected sales of US$4.9 billion to US$5.2 billion and shipments of 17.0 to 18.2 gigawatts. Combined with the new Q3 guidance for 3.9 to 4.5 gigawatts of module sales, this reinforces the role of U.S. manufacturing growth as a key catalyst, particularly as the contracted backlog of 45.1 gigawatts extends pricing and volume visibility through 2030.

    Yet against that strength, the open questions around Section 232 tariffs and rising input costs are things investors should be very aware of...

    Read the full narrative on First Solar (it's free!)

    First Solar’s narrative projects $6.7 billion revenue and $3.1 billion earnings by 2029. This requires 7.3% yearly revenue growth and about a $1.4 billion earnings increase from $1.7 billion today.

    Uncover how First Solar's forecasts yield a $251.90 fair value, a 19% upside to its current price.

    Exploring Other Perspectives

    FSLR 1-Year Stock Price Chart
    FSLR 1-Year Stock Price Chart

    Some of the lowest analysts were already cautious, assuming revenue of about US$5.7 billion and earnings near US$2.4 billion by 2029, so if you are comparing those more pessimistic expectations with today’s strong margins and backlog, it is worth asking whether this quarter’s numbers and tariff risks eventually pull their narrative closer to consensus or pull consensus closer to them.

    Explore 5 other fair value estimates on First Solar - why the stock might be worth just $251.90!

    Form Your Own Verdict

    Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

    • A great starting point for your First Solar research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
    • Our free First Solar research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate First Solar's overall financial health at a glance.

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    This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.