Is Grail (GRAL) Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold at Under $70?
Key Points
Grail’s stock crashed after Galleri’s NHS England trial missed its primary endpoint.
But it’s still generating plenty of revenue without an FDA approval.
Grail (NASDAQ: GRAL), which was spun off from Illumina (NASDAQ: ILMN) in 2024, reached a record high of $116.06 on Jan. 22. But today, the cancer test developer's stock trades at just under $70. Is it a buy, sell, or hold at these levels?
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The bulls vs. the bears
Grail's Galleri blood test aims to detect signals from dozens of cancers before any symptoms appear. That seems like a game changer for the oncology market, but its stock plunged in February after its largest NHS England trial failed to meet its primary endpoint. That trial was considered a crucial stepping stone toward an FDA approval in the U.S. -- which would clear the way for private insurance and Medicare plans to cover its tests.
However, Grail already sells Galleri on a cash-only basis (for $749 to $949) to independent customers, select employers, hospital pilots, and telehealth programs. Its NHS England trial also wasn't a complete failure: Galleri's users in the trial still had fewer Stage IV cancers detected, and it achieved earlier (Stage I and II) detection of the deadliest cancers.
Even without a near-term FDA approval, analysts expect Grail's revenue to grow from $147 million in 2025 to $281 million in 2028. It won't generate a profit anytime soon, and its stock isn't cheap at 17 times this year's sales, but an FDA approval could help it crush those estimates. Therefore, I think it's smarter to buy and hold Grail at under $70 than to hastily sell it.
Leo Sun has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Illumina. The Motley Fool recommends Grail. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.